Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.92% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of April 23, 2025 was $587.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.50% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of April 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of REGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 11.1673
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0760
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0760) – 1
= 35.51%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1673 + -0.0026 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(7.2478)
= $1,404.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1673 + -0.0026 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(6.9439)
= $1,036.78
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1673 + -0.0026 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(6.4912)
= $659.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1673 + -0.0026 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(6.1873)
= $486.51
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.92% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of April 23, 2025 was $587.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 31, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 9.5231
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.38%
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5231 + -0.0017 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.7870)
= $886.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5231 + -0.0017 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.6015)
= $736.22
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5231 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.4889)
= $657.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5231 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.3034)
= $546.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.50% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of April 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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