Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.43% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $617.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.75% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.19 (0.03%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of REGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 11.1666
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0782
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0782) – 1
= 36.72%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1666 + -0.0026 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(7.2490)
= $1,406.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1666 + -0.0026 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(6.9362)
= $1,028.90
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1666 + -0.0026 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(6.5600)
= $706.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1666 + -0.0026 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(6.2473)
= $516.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.43% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $617.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 8.3958
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0305
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0305) – 1
= 12.97%
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3958 + -0.0010 × 1,687 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(6.6915)
= $805.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3958 + -0.0010 × 1,687 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(6.5696)
= $713.07
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3958 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(6.5471)
= $697.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3958 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(6.4252)
= $617.19
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.75% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.19 (0.03%).
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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