Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.41% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $696.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $45.36 (6.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.49% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of REGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 8, 2024
End date: February 3, 2025
a = 13.3889
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0531
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0531) – 1
= 23.67%
August 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.3889 + -0.0038 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(7.2312)
= $1,381.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.3889 + -0.0038 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(7.0187)
= $1,117.37
February 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.3889 + -0.0038 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(6.5433)
= $694.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.3889 + -0.0038 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(6.3309)
= $561.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.41% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $696.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $45.36 (6.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2024
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 8.9400
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0242
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0242) – 1
= 10.15%
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9400 + -0.0013 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(6.6875)
= $802.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9400 + -0.0013 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(6.5909)
= $728.41
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9400 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(6.5570)
= $704.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9400 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(6.4604)
= $639.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.49% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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