Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.14% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $1,142.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 92.77% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of October 2, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.17 (0.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 26, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 7.2253
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0286
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0286) – 1
= 12.13%
June 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2253 + -0.0004 × 346 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(7.1490)
= $1,272.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2253 + -0.0004 × 346 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(7.0345)
= $1,135.16
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2253 + -0.0004 × 444 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(7.1112)
= $1,225.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2253 + -0.0004 × 444 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(6.9967)
= $1,093.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.14% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $1,142.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 8, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 6.2714
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0137
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 92.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0137) – 1
= 5.65%
September 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2714 + 0.0018 × 420 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(7.0541)
= $1,157.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2714 + 0.0018 × 420 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.9992)
= $1,095.70
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2714 + 0.0018 × 444 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(7.0972)
= $1,208.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2714 + 0.0018 × 444 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(7.0423)
= $1,144.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 92.77% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of October 2, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.17 (0.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.