Stock Analysis on Net

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.90% per annum.
  • LLY price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $805.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.92% per annum.
  • LLY price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 3, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 7.2749

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0658

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0658) – 1
= 30.09%

June 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2749 + -0.0003 × 1,523 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(6.9248)
= $1,017.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2749 + -0.0003 × 1,523 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(6.6618)
= $781.93

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2749 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(6.8293)
= $924.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2749 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(6.5663)
= $710.70

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.90% per annum.
  • LLY price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $805.23 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 14, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 4.9804

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0464

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.37%

November 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9804 + 0.0010 × 1,687 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.7235)
= $831.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9804 + 0.0010 × 1,687 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.5381)
= $690.98

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9804 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.8585)
= $951.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9804 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.6731)
= $790.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.92% per annum.
  • LLY price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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