Stock Analysis on Net

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.87% per annum.
  • LLY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $818.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.58% per annum.
  • LLY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 3, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 7.2731

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0656

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0656) – 1
= 30.01%

June 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,522 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2731 + -0.0003 × 1,522 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(6.9244)
= $1,016.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,522 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2731 + -0.0003 × 1,522 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(6.6620)
= $782.10

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2731 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(6.8289)
= $924.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2731 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(6.5664)
= $710.83

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.87% per annum.
  • LLY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $818.22 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 14, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.0260

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0465

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0465) – 1
= 20.44%

November 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0260 + 0.0010 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(6.7250)
= $832.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0260 + 0.0010 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(6.5390)
= $691.59

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0260 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(6.8574)
= $950.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0260 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(6.6714)
= $789.50

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.58% per annum.
  • LLY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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