Stock Analysis on Net

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MRK)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.69% per annum.
  • MRK price at the close of November 4, 2024 was $101.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.56% per annum.
  • MRK price at the close of November 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 25, 2024
End date: November 4, 2024

a = 6.7283

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0308

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0308) – 1
= 13.10%

April 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7283 + -0.0011 × 1,633 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.9518)
= $141.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7283 + -0.0011 × 1,633 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.8288)
= $125.05

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7283 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.7346)
= $113.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7283 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.6115)
= $100.64

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.69% per annum.
  • MRK price at the close of November 4, 2024 was $101.87 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: November 4, 2024

a = 9.9596

b = -0.0029

s = 0.0118

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0118) – 1
= 4.82%

September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9596 + -0.0029 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.7939)
= $120.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9596 + -0.0029 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.7469)
= $115.22

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9596 + -0.0029 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.6508)
= $104.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9596 + -0.0029 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.6038)
= $99.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.56% per annum.
  • MRK price at the close of November 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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