Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 159.20% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $414.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.25 (3.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.91% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of September 25, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $17.05 (4.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2026
End date: September 4, 2026
a = 5.0005
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0307
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 159.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0307) – 1
= 13.06%
May 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0005 + 0.0026 × 283 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(5.8003)
= $330.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0005 + 0.0026 × 283 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(5.6775)
= $292.23
September 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0005 + 0.0026 × 409 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(6.1291)
= $459.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0005 + 0.0026 × 409 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(6.0063)
= $405.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 159.20% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $414.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.25 (3.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 8.2180
b = -0.0054
s = 0.0381
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0054) – 1
= -85.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0381) – 1
= 16.48%
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2180 + -0.0054 × 392 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(6.1894)
= $487.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2180 + -0.0054 × 392 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(6.0369)
= $418.58
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2180 + -0.0054 × 426 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(6.0068)
= $406.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2180 + -0.0054 × 426 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(5.8543)
= $348.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.91% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of September 25, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $17.05 (4.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.