Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) 

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in thousands, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 16.34%
01 FCFE0 1,222,746
1 FCFE1 1,575,024 = 1,222,746 × (1 + 28.81%) 1,353,795
2 FCFE2 1,549,735 = 1,575,024 × (1 + -1.61%) 1,144,957
3 FCFE3 1,053,486 = 1,549,735 × (1 + -32.02%) 669,000
4 FCFE4 395,715 = 1,053,486 × (1 + -62.44%) 215,996
5 FCFE5 28,280 = 395,715 × (1 + -92.85%) 13,268
5 Terminal value (TV5) 1,851 = 28,280 × (1 + -92.85%) ÷ (16.34% – -92.85%) 868
Intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. common stock 3,397,883
 
Intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. common stock (per share) $2,493.69
Current share price $58.73

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 4.67%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 13.79%
Systematic risk of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. common stock βCMG 1.28
 
Required rate of return on Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. common stock3 rCMG 16.34%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rCMG = RF + βCMG [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.67% + 1.28 [13.79% – 4.67%]
= 16.34%

FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Net income 1,228,737 899,101 652,984 355,766 350,158
Revenue 9,871,649 8,634,652 7,547,061 5,984,634 5,586,369
Total assets 8,044,362 6,927,504 6,652,958 5,982,896 5,104,604
Shareholders’ equity 3,062,207 2,368,023 2,297,374 2,020,135 1,683,026
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Profit margin2 12.45% 10.41% 8.65% 5.94% 6.27%
Asset turnover3 1.23 1.25 1.13 1.00 1.09
Financial leverage4 2.63 2.93 2.90 2.96 3.03
Averages
Retention rate 1.00
Profit margin 8.74%
Asset turnover 1.14
Financial leverage 2.89
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 28.81%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

2023 Calculations

1 Company does not pay dividends

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Revenue
= 100 × 1,228,737 ÷ 9,871,649
= 12.45%

3 Asset turnover = Revenue ÷ Total assets
= 9,871,649 ÷ 8,044,362
= 1.23

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Shareholders’ equity
= 8,044,362 ÷ 3,062,207
= 2.63

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 1.00 × 8.74% × 1.14 × 2.89
= 28.81%

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (80,025 × 16.34% – 1,222,746) ÷ (80,025 + 1,222,746)
= -92.85%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. common stock (US$ in thousands)
FCFE0 = the last year Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. free cash flow to equity (US$ in thousands)
r = required rate of return on Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. common stock

FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 28.81%
2 g2 -1.61%
3 g3 -32.02%
4 g4 -62.44%
5 and thereafter g5 -92.85%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.81% + (-92.85% – 28.81%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -1.61%

g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.81% + (-92.85% – 28.81%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -32.02%

g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.81% + (-92.85% – 28.81%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -62.44%