Stock Analysis on Net

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The net operating profit after taxes demonstrates a consistent and significant upward trend over the analyzed period. From approximately $614 million at the end of 2020, NOPAT increased steadily each year, reaching about $1.71 billion by the end of 2024. This growth suggests enhanced operational efficiency or revenue expansion leading to improved profitability.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital remains relatively stable, fluctuating narrowly around an average of approximately 16.75%. It shows minor variations, with a slight dip towards 16.59% in 2022 and a marginal increase up to 16.94% in 2023, before settling at 16.92% in 2024. This stability indicates consistent investor expectations regarding risk and return over the period.
Invested Capital
Invested capital exhibits an upward trend overall, growing from about $4.94 billion in 2020 to nearly $6.83 billion by 2024. Notably, there was a slight decline in 2022 compared to 2021, but this was followed by a rebound and sustained growth in subsequent years. The general increase indicates ongoing investments in business operations, assets, or expansion initiatives.
Economic Profit
Economic profit shows a marked improvement throughout the period analyzed. It began with negative figures in 2020 and 2021, indicating that the company's returns were below its cost of capital in those years. However, from 2022 onwards, economic profit turns positive and continues to increase significantly, reaching over $550 million in 2024. This reversal suggests that the company has transitioned to generating value in excess of its capital costs, reflecting enhanced financial performance and effective capital allocation.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in unearned revenue3
Increase (decrease) in restructuring liability4
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents5
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability6
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense7
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes8
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in unearned revenue.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in restructuring liability.

5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

6 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

7 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.


The financial data over the five-year period reveals a consistent upward trend in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT).

Net Income
Net income has shown significant growth each year, starting at 355,766 thousand US dollars in 2020 and increasing steadily to 1,534,110 thousand US dollars by 2024. This represents a more than fourfold increase over the period, indicating strong profitability improvements and potentially effective cost management or revenue growth strategies.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT also displays a continuous rise from 613,981 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 1,706,003 thousand US dollars in 2024. The growing NOPAT suggests enhanced operational efficiency and profitability, reflecting the company's ability to generate higher returns from its core operations after accounting for tax expenses.

Overall, the data illustrates robust financial performance, with net income and NOPAT improving substantially year over year. The parallel growth in both metrics underlines consistent operational success coupled with effective tax management. This positive trajectory indicates favorable prospects if the trends continue.


Cash Operating Taxes

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


The data reveals a consistent upward trend in both provision (benefit) for income taxes and cash operating taxes over the analyzed periods from 2020 to 2024.

Provision (benefit) for income taxes (US$ in thousands)
Initially, there was a negative value of -61,985 in 2020, indicating a tax benefit. However, this shifted to a positive figure in 2021, reaching 159,779, and continued to increase each subsequent year, culminating in 476,120 by 2024.
Cash operating taxes (US$ in thousands)
Similarly, cash operating taxes moved from a negative amount of -130,767 in 2020 to a positive 213,319 in 2021, with continuous growth each year thereafter. The amount more than doubled from 452,292 in 2023 to 573,988 in 2024.

The transition from negative to positive tax provisions and cash payments in 2021 suggests a significant change in the tax position or profitability of the company starting that year. The steady increase in both metrics through 2024 may indicate increasing taxable income or changes in tax rates or policies applied to the company. Additionally, the gap between provision for income taxes and cash operating taxes is evident and appears to widen over time, which could point to differences in deferred tax accounting effects or timing differences in tax payments.


Invested Capital

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for credit losses3
Unearned revenue4
Restructuring liability5
Equity equivalents6
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax7
Adjusted shareholders’ equity
Construction in Progress8
Debt investments9
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of unearned revenue.

5 Addition of restructuring liability.

6 Addition of equity equivalents to shareholders’ equity.

7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

8 Subtraction of construction in Progress.

9 Subtraction of debt investments.


The financial data reveals consistent growth in key capital structure components over the observed five-year period.

Total reported debt & leases
There is a steady increase in total reported debt and lease obligations, rising from approximately $3.16 billion in 2020 to about $4.54 billion in 2024. The growth trend is continuous year-over-year, indicating an increasing reliance on leverage or lease obligations to finance operations or expansion initiatives.
Shareholders’ equity
Shareholders' equity shows a positive and notable growth trend, expanding from around $2.02 billion in 2020 to nearly $3.66 billion in 2024. The equity increases are more pronounced from 2022 onwards, suggesting retained earnings accumulation, equity infusion, or improved profitability driving the net asset value upwards.
Invested capital
Invested capital, representing the total amount of capital used for operations, also demonstrates an overall upward trend. It rises from about $4.94 billion in 2020 to approximately $6.83 billion in 2024, with a slight dip noted in 2022 relative to 2021. The rebound following 2022 highlights expansion or reinvestment efforts surpassing the previous year's level.

Overall, the data indicates a firm that is progressively increasing both its debt and equity bases to support growing invested capital. The increasing equity base alongside rising debt suggests balanced financing efforts, potentially enhancing financial flexibility and capacity for continued growth.


Cost of Capital

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Airbnb Inc.
Booking Holdings Inc.
DoorDash, Inc.
McDonald’s Corp.
Starbucks Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit exhibits a clear and significant positive trend over the five-year period. Initially, economic profit was negative, indicating value destruction, with a loss of $212,135 thousand in 2020 and a reduced loss of $124,394 thousand in 2021. From 2022 onwards, economic profit becomes positive and continues to increase substantially, reaching $130,975 thousand in 2022, then climbing sharply to $385,751 thousand in 2023, and further to $550,661 thousand in 2024. This trend suggests improving operational efficiency and value creation over time.
Invested Capital
Invested capital showed a moderate growth trend throughout the period. It increased from approximately $4,937,915 thousand in 2020 to $5,496,598 thousand in 2021. There was a slight decline to $5,396,406 thousand in 2022, but the upward trajectory resumed in subsequent years, reaching $6,006,837 thousand in 2023 and $6,827,838 thousand in 2024. This steady rise indicates ongoing investment and expansion of the company's capital base despite a minor dip in 2022.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio, which measures the return above the cost of capital, shifted from negative to positive during the period, reflecting enhanced profitability relative to invested capital. In 2020, the ratio was -4.3%, improving to -2.26% in 2021. A notable turnaround occurred in 2022 with a positive spread of 2.43%, followed by further improvement to 6.42% in 2023, and reaching 8.06% in 2024. This upward trend indicates that the company increasingly generated returns exceeding its capital costs, consistent with the observed rise in economic profit.

Economic Profit Margin

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
 
Revenue
Add: Increase (decrease) in unearned revenue
Adjusted revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Airbnb Inc.
Booking Holdings Inc.
DoorDash, Inc.
McDonald’s Corp.
Starbucks Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Revenue Trends
The adjusted revenue has shown a consistent upward trend over the five-year period. It increased from approximately 6.02 billion US dollars in 2020 to around 11.34 billion US dollars in 2024. This growth signifies a steady expansion in the company's top-line performance year-over-year.
Economic Profit Trends
Economic profit started at a negative value of about -212 million US dollars in 2020, indicating that the company's economic cost of capital exceeded its operating profits that year. Over the subsequent years, economic profit improved significantly, turning positive in 2022 at approximately 131 million US dollars and continuing to increase to about 551 million US dollars by 2024. This marked improvement reflects enhanced profitability after considering the cost of capital.
Economic Profit Margin Trends
The economic profit margin moved from a negative figure of -3.53% in 2020 to a positive margin of 4.85% in 2024. The margin increased progressively each year, indicating an improving efficiency and value creation relative to revenue. The transition from negative to positive margin illustrates a shift from value destruction to value generation.
Overall Analysis
The data reveals strong financial progress characterized by increasing revenues coupled with a turnaround in economic profitability. The company has succeeded in not only growing its sales but also in enhancing the quality of its earnings by generating positive economic profits and improving economic profit margins substantially during the reviewed period.