Stock Analysis on Net

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
There is a consistent and significant increase in NOPAT over the five-year period. Starting from approximately $614 million in 2020, NOPAT rose steadily each year to reach around $1.71 billion by 2024. This implies a strong improvement in the company's operating profitability after accounting for taxes.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital has remained relatively stable, fluctuating slightly around the range of 16.5% to 16.9%. This minor variation suggests that the weighted average cost of capital was steady, with a marginal increase towards the end of the period.
Invested Capital
Invested capital saw a steady upward trend from approximately $4.94 billion in 2020 to about $6.83 billion in 2024. Despite a minor decline between 2021 and 2022, the overall trend points to increasing capital investment, indicating potential expansion or reinvestment in the business.
Economic Profit
Economic profit shows a marked improvement, transitioning from negative values at the start of the period (-$210 million in 2020 and -$122 million in 2021) to positive and growing profits starting in 2022. By 2024, economic profit reached approximately $554 million, reflecting enhanced value creation above the cost of capital.
Overall Analysis
The data reflects that the company improved its operational efficiency and profitability while making significant investments in its capital base. The stable cost of capital alongside increasing NOPAT and invested capital indicates effective capital management. Importantly, the turnaround from negative to positive economic profit highlights a transition to generating shareholder value beyond the minimum required returns.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in unearned revenue3
Increase (decrease) in restructuring liability4
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents5
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability6
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense7
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes8
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in unearned revenue.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in restructuring liability.

5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

6 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

7 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.


The financial data over the five-year period reveals a consistent upward trend in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT).

Net Income
Net income has shown significant growth each year, starting at 355,766 thousand US dollars in 2020 and increasing steadily to 1,534,110 thousand US dollars by 2024. This represents a more than fourfold increase over the period, indicating strong profitability improvements and potentially effective cost management or revenue growth strategies.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT also displays a continuous rise from 613,981 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 1,706,003 thousand US dollars in 2024. The growing NOPAT suggests enhanced operational efficiency and profitability, reflecting the company's ability to generate higher returns from its core operations after accounting for tax expenses.

Overall, the data illustrates robust financial performance, with net income and NOPAT improving substantially year over year. The parallel growth in both metrics underlines consistent operational success coupled with effective tax management. This positive trajectory indicates favorable prospects if the trends continue.


Cash Operating Taxes

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


The data reveals a consistent upward trend in both provision (benefit) for income taxes and cash operating taxes over the analyzed periods from 2020 to 2024.

Provision (benefit) for income taxes (US$ in thousands)
Initially, there was a negative value of -61,985 in 2020, indicating a tax benefit. However, this shifted to a positive figure in 2021, reaching 159,779, and continued to increase each subsequent year, culminating in 476,120 by 2024.
Cash operating taxes (US$ in thousands)
Similarly, cash operating taxes moved from a negative amount of -130,767 in 2020 to a positive 213,319 in 2021, with continuous growth each year thereafter. The amount more than doubled from 452,292 in 2023 to 573,988 in 2024.

The transition from negative to positive tax provisions and cash payments in 2021 suggests a significant change in the tax position or profitability of the company starting that year. The steady increase in both metrics through 2024 may indicate increasing taxable income or changes in tax rates or policies applied to the company. Additionally, the gap between provision for income taxes and cash operating taxes is evident and appears to widen over time, which could point to differences in deferred tax accounting effects or timing differences in tax payments.


Invested Capital

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for credit losses3
Unearned revenue4
Restructuring liability5
Equity equivalents6
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax7
Adjusted shareholders’ equity
Construction in Progress8
Debt investments9
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of unearned revenue.

5 Addition of restructuring liability.

6 Addition of equity equivalents to shareholders’ equity.

7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

8 Subtraction of construction in Progress.

9 Subtraction of debt investments.


The financial data reveals consistent growth in key capital structure components over the observed five-year period.

Total reported debt & leases
There is a steady increase in total reported debt and lease obligations, rising from approximately $3.16 billion in 2020 to about $4.54 billion in 2024. The growth trend is continuous year-over-year, indicating an increasing reliance on leverage or lease obligations to finance operations or expansion initiatives.
Shareholders’ equity
Shareholders' equity shows a positive and notable growth trend, expanding from around $2.02 billion in 2020 to nearly $3.66 billion in 2024. The equity increases are more pronounced from 2022 onwards, suggesting retained earnings accumulation, equity infusion, or improved profitability driving the net asset value upwards.
Invested capital
Invested capital, representing the total amount of capital used for operations, also demonstrates an overall upward trend. It rises from about $4.94 billion in 2020 to approximately $6.83 billion in 2024, with a slight dip noted in 2022 relative to 2021. The rebound following 2022 highlights expansion or reinvestment efforts surpassing the previous year's level.

Overall, the data indicates a firm that is progressively increasing both its debt and equity bases to support growing invested capital. The increasing equity base alongside rising debt suggests balanced financing efforts, potentially enhancing financial flexibility and capacity for continued growth.


Cost of Capital

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Airbnb Inc.
Booking Holdings Inc.
DoorDash, Inc.
McDonald’s Corp.
Starbucks Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit demonstrates a notable progression over the analyzed periods. Initially, it was negative at -209,651 thousand US dollars in 2020, indicating value destruction during that year. However, there is a clear upward trend, with economic profit increasing to -121,649 thousand US dollars in 2021, turning positive at 133,660 thousand US dollars in 2022, and continuing to rise significantly to 554,142 thousand US dollars by 2024. This trajectory suggests improving profitability and value creation for the company across the years.
Invested Capital
The invested capital shows a steady increase from 4,937,915 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 6,827,838 thousand US dollars in 2024. Although there is a slight decrease observed between 2021 (5,496,598 thousand US dollars) and 2022 (5,396,406 thousand US dollars), the overall trend is one of growth. This expansion in invested capital indicates ongoing investment in the company's assets or operations.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio improved consistently over the given timeline. Starting with a negative spread of -4.25% in 2020, it moved closer to zero at -2.21% in 2021, then became positive from 2022 onward. The ratio increased markedly to 8.12% by 2024. The rising economic spread ratio suggests enhanced efficiency in generating returns over the company's cost of capital, reflecting strengthening economic profitability.

Economic Profit Margin

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
 
Revenue
Add: Increase (decrease) in unearned revenue
Adjusted revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Airbnb Inc.
Booking Holdings Inc.
DoorDash, Inc.
McDonald’s Corp.
Starbucks Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The analysis of the annual financial data reveals significant positive trends in key financial metrics over the observed five-year period.

Economic Profit
The economic profit displayed a notable turnaround from a negative position in 2020 and 2021 to positive values beginning in 2022. Specifically, economic profit was -209,651 thousand US dollars in 2020, improved to -121,649 thousand in 2021, and then shifted to positive 133,660 thousand in 2022. This upward trajectory continued with further increases to 388,819 thousand in 2023 and 554,142 thousand in 2024. This pattern indicates a significant improvement in the company's value creation, moving from economic losses to substantial economic gains.
Adjusted Revenue
Adjusted revenue exhibited consistent growth throughout the entire period. The revenue increased from 6,017,189 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 7,575,662 thousand in 2021, representing strong growth of approximately 25.8%. This growth momentum persisted in subsequent years with revenues of 8,661,372 thousand in 2022, 9,898,258 thousand in 2023, and reaching 11,342,750 thousand in 2024. The steady rise suggests effective market expansion or improved sales performance over time.
Economic Profit Margin
Closely related to the economic profit, the economic profit margin also demonstrated a marked improvement over the period. Starting at a negative margin of -3.48% in 2020, the metric improved to -1.61% in 2021, indicating reduced economic loss relative to revenue. In 2022, the margin crossed into positive territory at 1.54%, then increased further to 3.93% in 2023 and 4.89% in 2024. This positive progression points to an enhanced profitability and more efficient utilization of capital in generating returns above the cost of capital.

Overall, the data suggests a strong recovery and growth phase with improving profitability and revenue generation capabilities. The transition from negative to positive economic profit and continuous revenue expansion reflect successful business strategies and operational improvements over the reported years.