Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.95% per annum.
- HPE price at the close of June 5, 2024 was $19.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.44 (37.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.98% per annum.
- HPE price at the close of June 5, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.31%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HPE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: April 4, 2022
a = 1.7779
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1036
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1036) – 1
= 51.35%
March 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y190)
= Exp(a + b × X190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7779 + 0.0010 × 277 + 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(2.2668)
= $9.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y190)
= Exp(a + b × X190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7779 + 0.0010 × 277 – 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(1.8523)
= $6.37
April 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7779 + 0.0010 × 1,033 + 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(3.0356)
= $20.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7779 + 0.0010 × 1,033 – 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(2.6212)
= $13.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.95% per annum.
- HPE price at the close of June 5, 2024 was $19.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.44 (37.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2021
End date: June 4, 2024
a = 2.4640
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0792
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0792) – 1
= 37.27%
February 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y420)
= Exp(a + b × X420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4640 + 0.0002 × 609 + 2 × 0.0792)
= Exp(2.7350)
= $15.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y420)
= Exp(a + b × X420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4640 + 0.0002 × 609 – 2 × 0.0792)
= Exp(2.4182)
= $11.23
June 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4640 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0792)
= Exp(2.9599)
= $19.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4640 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0792)
= Exp(2.6431)
= $14.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.98% per annum.
- HPE price at the close of June 5, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.31%).
Check current HPE price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website