Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.88% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $17.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.83% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of March 27, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 0.7388
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1627
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1627) – 1
= 91.71%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7388 + 0.0012 × 1,173 + 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(2.4283)
= $11.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7388 + 0.0012 × 1,173 – 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(1.7775)
= $5.91
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7388 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(3.1876)
= $24.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7388 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(2.5368)
= $12.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.88% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $17.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 5.1995
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0509
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0509) – 1
= 22.59%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1995 + -0.0013 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(2.9933)
= $19.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1995 + -0.0013 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(2.7896)
= $16.27
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1995 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(2.8424)
= $17.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1995 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(2.6388)
= $14.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.83% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of March 27, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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