Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) indicates what should be the expected or required rate of return on risky assets like Oracle Corp. common stock.
Rates of Return
Oracle Corp., monthly rates of return
| Oracle Corp. (ORCL) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Date | PriceORCL,t1 | DividendORCL,t1 | RORCL,t2 | PriceS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| Jun 30, 2018 | $44.06 | 2,718.37 | ||||
| 1. | Jul 31, 2018 | $47.68 | $0.19 | 8.65% | 2,816.29 | 3.60% |
| 2. | Aug 31, 2018 | $48.58 | 1.89% | 2,901.52 | 3.03% | |
| 3. | Sep 30, 2018 | $51.56 | 6.13% | 2,913.98 | 0.43% | |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 70. | Apr 30, 2024 | $113.75 | $0.40 | -9.12% | 5,035.69 | -4.16% |
| 71. | May 31, 2024 | $117.19 | 3.02% | 5,277.51 | 4.80% | |
| Average (R): | 1.81% | 1.08% | ||||
| Standard deviation: | 7.69% | 5.24% | ||||
| Oracle Corp. (ORCL) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Date | PriceORCL,t1 | DividendORCL,t1 | RORCL,t2 | PriceS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| Jun 30, 2018 | $44.06 | 2,718.37 | ||||
| 1. | Jul 31, 2018 | $47.68 | $0.19 | 8.65% | 2,816.29 | 3.60% |
| 2. | Aug 31, 2018 | $48.58 | 1.89% | 2,901.52 | 3.03% | |
| 3. | Sep 30, 2018 | $51.56 | 6.13% | 2,913.98 | 0.43% | |
| 4. | Oct 31, 2018 | $48.84 | $0.19 | -4.91% | 2,711.74 | -6.94% |
| 5. | Nov 30, 2018 | $48.76 | -0.16% | 2,760.17 | 1.79% | |
| 6. | Dec 31, 2018 | $45.15 | -7.40% | 2,506.85 | -9.18% | |
| 7. | Jan 31, 2019 | $50.23 | $0.19 | 11.67% | 2,704.10 | 7.87% |
| 8. | Feb 28, 2019 | $52.13 | 3.78% | 2,784.49 | 2.97% | |
| 9. | Mar 31, 2019 | $53.71 | 3.03% | 2,834.40 | 1.79% | |
| 10. | Apr 30, 2019 | $55.33 | $0.24 | 3.46% | 2,945.83 | 3.93% |
| 11. | May 31, 2019 | $50.60 | -8.55% | 2,752.06 | -6.58% | |
| 12. | Jun 30, 2019 | $56.97 | 12.59% | 2,941.76 | 6.89% | |
| 13. | Jul 31, 2019 | $56.30 | $0.24 | -0.75% | 2,980.38 | 1.31% |
| 14. | Aug 31, 2019 | $52.06 | -7.53% | 2,926.46 | -1.81% | |
| 15. | Sep 30, 2019 | $55.03 | 5.70% | 2,976.74 | 1.72% | |
| 16. | Oct 31, 2019 | $54.49 | $0.24 | -0.55% | 3,037.56 | 2.04% |
| 17. | Nov 30, 2019 | $56.14 | 3.03% | 3,140.98 | 3.40% | |
| 18. | Dec 31, 2019 | $52.98 | -5.63% | 3,230.78 | 2.86% | |
| 19. | Jan 31, 2020 | $52.45 | $0.24 | -0.55% | 3,225.52 | -0.16% |
| 20. | Feb 29, 2020 | $49.46 | -5.70% | 2,954.22 | -8.41% | |
| 21. | Mar 31, 2020 | $48.33 | -2.28% | 2,584.59 | -12.51% | |
| 22. | Apr 30, 2020 | $52.97 | $0.24 | 10.10% | 2,912.43 | 12.68% |
| 23. | May 31, 2020 | $53.77 | 1.51% | 3,044.31 | 4.53% | |
| 24. | Jun 30, 2020 | $55.27 | 2.79% | 3,100.29 | 1.84% | |
| 25. | Jul 31, 2020 | $55.45 | $0.24 | 0.76% | 3,271.12 | 5.51% |
| 26. | Aug 31, 2020 | $57.22 | 3.19% | 3,500.31 | 7.01% | |
| 27. | Sep 30, 2020 | $59.70 | 4.33% | 3,363.00 | -3.92% | |
| 28. | Oct 31, 2020 | $56.11 | $0.24 | -5.61% | 3,269.96 | -2.77% |
| 29. | Nov 30, 2020 | $57.72 | 2.87% | 3,621.63 | 10.75% | |
| 30. | Dec 31, 2020 | $64.69 | 12.08% | 3,756.07 | 3.71% | |
| 31. | Jan 31, 2021 | $60.43 | $0.24 | -6.21% | 3,714.24 | -1.11% |
| 32. | Feb 28, 2021 | $64.51 | 6.75% | 3,811.15 | 2.61% | |
| 33. | Mar 31, 2021 | $70.17 | 8.77% | 3,972.89 | 4.24% | |
| 34. | Apr 30, 2021 | $75.79 | $0.32 | 8.47% | 4,181.17 | 5.24% |
| 35. | May 31, 2021 | $78.74 | 3.89% | 4,204.11 | 0.55% | |
| 36. | Jun 30, 2021 | $77.84 | -1.14% | 4,297.50 | 2.22% | |
| 37. | Jul 31, 2021 | $87.14 | $0.32 | 12.36% | 4,395.26 | 2.27% |
| 38. | Aug 31, 2021 | $89.13 | 2.28% | 4,522.68 | 2.90% | |
| 39. | Sep 30, 2021 | $87.13 | -2.24% | 4,307.54 | -4.76% | |
| 40. | Oct 31, 2021 | $95.94 | $0.32 | 10.48% | 4,605.38 | 6.91% |
| 41. | Nov 30, 2021 | $90.74 | -5.42% | 4,567.00 | -0.83% | |
| 42. | Dec 31, 2021 | $87.21 | -3.89% | 4,766.18 | 4.36% | |
| 43. | Jan 31, 2022 | $81.16 | $0.32 | -6.57% | 4,515.55 | -5.26% |
| 44. | Feb 28, 2022 | $75.97 | -6.39% | 4,373.94 | -3.14% | |
| 45. | Mar 31, 2022 | $82.73 | 8.90% | 4,530.41 | 3.58% | |
| 46. | Apr 30, 2022 | $73.40 | $0.32 | -10.89% | 4,131.93 | -8.80% |
| 47. | May 31, 2022 | $71.92 | -2.02% | 4,132.15 | 0.01% | |
| 48. | Jun 30, 2022 | $69.87 | -2.85% | 3,785.38 | -8.39% | |
| 49. | Jul 31, 2022 | $77.84 | $0.32 | 11.86% | 4,130.29 | 9.11% |
| 50. | Aug 31, 2022 | $74.15 | -4.74% | 3,955.00 | -4.24% | |
| 51. | Sep 30, 2022 | $61.07 | -17.64% | 3,585.62 | -9.34% | |
| 52. | Oct 31, 2022 | $78.07 | $0.32 | 28.36% | 3,871.98 | 7.99% |
| 53. | Nov 30, 2022 | $83.03 | 6.35% | 4,080.11 | 5.38% | |
| 54. | Dec 31, 2022 | $81.74 | -1.55% | 3,839.50 | -5.90% | |
| 55. | Jan 31, 2023 | $88.46 | $0.32 | 8.61% | 4,076.60 | 6.18% |
| 56. | Feb 28, 2023 | $87.40 | -1.20% | 3,970.15 | -2.61% | |
| 57. | Mar 31, 2023 | $92.92 | 6.32% | 4,109.31 | 3.51% | |
| 58. | Apr 30, 2023 | $94.72 | $0.40 | 2.37% | 4,169.48 | 1.46% |
| 59. | May 31, 2023 | $105.94 | 11.85% | 4,179.83 | 0.25% | |
| 60. | Jun 30, 2023 | $119.09 | 12.41% | 4,376.86 | 4.71% | |
| 61. | Jul 31, 2023 | $117.23 | $0.40 | -1.23% | 4,588.96 | 4.85% |
| 62. | Aug 31, 2023 | $120.39 | 2.70% | 4,507.66 | -1.77% | |
| 63. | Sep 30, 2023 | $105.92 | -12.02% | 4,288.05 | -4.87% | |
| 64. | Oct 31, 2023 | $103.40 | $0.40 | -2.00% | 4,193.80 | -2.20% |
| 65. | Nov 30, 2023 | $116.21 | 12.39% | 4,567.80 | 8.92% | |
| 66. | Dec 31, 2023 | $105.43 | -9.28% | 4,769.83 | 4.42% | |
| 67. | Jan 31, 2024 | $111.70 | $0.40 | 6.33% | 4,845.65 | 1.59% |
| 68. | Feb 29, 2024 | $111.68 | -0.02% | 5,096.27 | 5.17% | |
| 69. | Mar 31, 2024 | $125.61 | 12.47% | 5,254.35 | 3.10% | |
| 70. | Apr 30, 2024 | $113.75 | $0.40 | -9.12% | 5,035.69 | -4.16% |
| 71. | May 31, 2024 | $117.19 | 3.02% | 5,277.51 | 4.80% | |
| Average (R): | 1.81% | 1.08% | ||||
| Standard deviation: | 7.69% | 5.24% | ||||
Show all
1 Data in US$ per share of common stock, adjusted for splits and stock dividends.
2 Rate of return on common stock of ORCL during period t
3 Rate of return on S&P 500 (the market portfolio proxy) during period t
Variance and Covariance
Oracle Corp., calculation of variance and covariance of returns
| t | Date | RORCL,t | RS&P 500,t | (RORCL,t–RORCL)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RORCL,t–RORCL)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jul 31, 2018 | 8.65% | 3.60% | 46.76 | 6.39 | 17.28 |
| 2. | Aug 31, 2018 | 1.89% | 3.03% | 0.01 | 3.81 | 0.15 |
| 3. | Sep 30, 2018 | 6.13% | 0.43% | 18.71 | 0.42 | -2.79 |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 70. | Apr 30, 2024 | -9.12% | -4.16% | 119.52 | 27.42 | 57.25 |
| 71. | May 31, 2024 | 3.02% | 4.80% | 1.48 | 13.89 | 4.53 |
| Total (Σ): | 4,144.31 | 1,923.46 | 1,947.49 | |||
| t | Date | RORCL,t | RS&P 500,t | (RORCL,t–RORCL)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RORCL,t–RORCL)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jul 31, 2018 | 8.65% | 3.60% | 46.76 | 6.39 | 17.28 |
| 2. | Aug 31, 2018 | 1.89% | 3.03% | 0.01 | 3.81 | 0.15 |
| 3. | Sep 30, 2018 | 6.13% | 0.43% | 18.71 | 0.42 | -2.79 |
| 4. | Oct 31, 2018 | -4.91% | -6.94% | 45.11 | 64.25 | 53.83 |
| 5. | Nov 30, 2018 | -0.16% | 1.79% | 3.89 | 0.51 | -1.40 |
| 6. | Dec 31, 2018 | -7.40% | -9.18% | 84.88 | 105.12 | 94.46 |
| 7. | Jan 31, 2019 | 11.67% | 7.87% | 97.28 | 46.15 | 67.00 |
| 8. | Feb 28, 2019 | 3.78% | 2.97% | 3.89 | 3.60 | 3.74 |
| 9. | Mar 31, 2019 | 3.03% | 1.79% | 1.49 | 0.51 | 0.88 |
| 10. | Apr 30, 2019 | 3.46% | 3.93% | 2.74 | 8.16 | 4.72 |
| 11. | May 31, 2019 | -8.55% | -6.58% | 107.29 | 58.57 | 79.27 |
| 12. | Jun 30, 2019 | 12.59% | 6.89% | 116.20 | 33.85 | 62.71 |
| 13. | Jul 31, 2019 | -0.75% | 1.31% | 6.57 | 0.06 | -0.61 |
| 14. | Aug 31, 2019 | -7.53% | -1.81% | 87.24 | 8.32 | 26.94 |
| 15. | Sep 30, 2019 | 5.70% | 1.72% | 15.18 | 0.41 | 2.50 |
| 16. | Oct 31, 2019 | -0.55% | 2.04% | 5.54 | 0.94 | -2.28 |
| 17. | Nov 30, 2019 | 3.03% | 3.40% | 1.49 | 5.43 | 2.84 |
| 18. | Dec 31, 2019 | -5.63% | 2.86% | 55.32 | 3.18 | -13.27 |
| 19. | Jan 31, 2020 | -0.55% | -0.16% | 5.55 | 1.53 | 2.92 |
| 20. | Feb 29, 2020 | -5.70% | -8.41% | 56.40 | 89.99 | 71.24 |
| 21. | Mar 31, 2020 | -2.28% | -12.51% | 16.76 | 184.61 | 55.62 |
| 22. | Apr 30, 2020 | 10.10% | 12.68% | 68.69 | 134.77 | 96.22 |
| 23. | May 31, 2020 | 1.51% | 4.53% | 0.09 | 11.92 | -1.03 |
| 24. | Jun 30, 2020 | 2.79% | 1.84% | 0.96 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| 25. | Jul 31, 2020 | 0.76% | 5.51% | 1.10 | 19.67 | -4.65 |
| 26. | Aug 31, 2020 | 3.19% | 7.01% | 1.91 | 35.18 | 8.20 |
| 27. | Sep 30, 2020 | 4.33% | -3.92% | 6.38 | 24.98 | -12.62 |
| 28. | Oct 31, 2020 | -5.61% | -2.77% | 55.07 | 14.76 | 28.51 |
| 29. | Nov 30, 2020 | 2.87% | 10.75% | 1.12 | 93.69 | 10.26 |
| 30. | Dec 31, 2020 | 12.08% | 3.71% | 105.40 | 6.95 | 27.07 |
| 31. | Jan 31, 2021 | -6.21% | -1.11% | 64.38 | 4.79 | 17.56 |
| 32. | Feb 28, 2021 | 6.75% | 2.61% | 24.43 | 2.35 | 7.58 |
| 33. | Mar 31, 2021 | 8.77% | 4.24% | 48.51 | 10.04 | 22.07 |
| 34. | Apr 30, 2021 | 8.47% | 5.24% | 44.30 | 17.37 | 27.74 |
| 35. | May 31, 2021 | 3.89% | 0.55% | 4.34 | 0.28 | -1.10 |
| 36. | Jun 30, 2021 | -1.14% | 2.22% | 8.72 | 1.31 | -3.38 |
| 37. | Jul 31, 2021 | 12.36% | 2.27% | 111.29 | 1.44 | 12.65 |
| 38. | Aug 31, 2021 | 2.28% | 2.90% | 0.23 | 3.33 | 0.87 |
| 39. | Sep 30, 2021 | -2.24% | -4.76% | 16.43 | 34.01 | 23.64 |
| 40. | Oct 31, 2021 | 10.48% | 6.91% | 75.16 | 34.10 | 50.62 |
| 41. | Nov 30, 2021 | -5.42% | -0.83% | 52.26 | 3.64 | 13.80 |
| 42. | Dec 31, 2021 | -3.89% | 4.36% | 32.48 | 10.80 | -18.73 |
| 43. | Jan 31, 2022 | -6.57% | -5.26% | 70.22 | 40.12 | 53.07 |
| 44. | Feb 28, 2022 | -6.39% | -3.14% | 67.31 | 17.74 | 34.55 |
| 45. | Mar 31, 2022 | 8.90% | 3.58% | 50.25 | 6.26 | 17.74 |
| 46. | Apr 30, 2022 | -10.89% | -8.80% | 161.29 | 97.44 | 125.36 |
| 47. | May 31, 2022 | -2.02% | 0.01% | 14.63 | 1.14 | 4.09 |
| 48. | Jun 30, 2022 | -2.85% | -8.39% | 21.71 | 89.63 | 44.11 |
| 49. | Jul 31, 2022 | 11.86% | 9.11% | 101.12 | 64.58 | 80.81 |
| 50. | Aug 31, 2022 | -4.74% | -4.24% | 42.90 | 28.29 | 34.84 |
| 51. | Sep 30, 2022 | -17.64% | -9.34% | 378.27 | 108.47 | 202.56 |
| 52. | Oct 31, 2022 | 28.36% | 7.99% | 704.99 | 47.76 | 183.50 |
| 53. | Nov 30, 2022 | 6.35% | 5.38% | 20.65 | 18.49 | 19.54 |
| 54. | Dec 31, 2022 | -1.55% | -5.90% | 11.31 | 48.61 | 23.45 |
| 55. | Jan 31, 2023 | 8.61% | 6.18% | 46.29 | 26.01 | 34.70 |
| 56. | Feb 28, 2023 | -1.20% | -2.61% | 9.04 | 13.59 | 11.09 |
| 57. | Mar 31, 2023 | 6.32% | 3.51% | 20.31 | 5.90 | 10.95 |
| 58. | Apr 30, 2023 | 2.37% | 1.46% | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| 59. | May 31, 2023 | 11.85% | 0.25% | 100.73 | 0.68 | -8.30 |
| 60. | Jun 30, 2023 | 12.41% | 4.71% | 112.43 | 13.24 | 38.58 |
| 61. | Jul 31, 2023 | -1.23% | 4.85% | 9.21 | 14.22 | -11.44 |
| 62. | Aug 31, 2023 | 2.70% | -1.77% | 0.79 | 8.10 | -2.52 |
| 63. | Sep 30, 2023 | -12.02% | -4.87% | 191.23 | 35.37 | 82.24 |
| 64. | Oct 31, 2023 | -2.00% | -2.20% | 14.52 | 10.71 | 12.47 |
| 65. | Nov 30, 2023 | 12.39% | 8.92% | 111.93 | 61.51 | 82.97 |
| 66. | Dec 31, 2023 | -9.28% | 4.42% | 122.89 | 11.21 | -37.11 |
| 67. | Jan 31, 2024 | 6.33% | 1.59% | 20.41 | 0.26 | 2.32 |
| 68. | Feb 29, 2024 | -0.02% | 5.17% | 3.34 | 16.78 | -7.49 |
| 69. | Mar 31, 2024 | 12.47% | 3.10% | 113.72 | 4.11 | 21.61 |
| 70. | Apr 30, 2024 | -9.12% | -4.16% | 119.52 | 27.42 | 57.25 |
| 71. | May 31, 2024 | 3.02% | 4.80% | 1.48 | 13.89 | 4.53 |
| Total (Σ): | 4,144.31 | 1,923.46 | 1,947.49 | |||
Show all
VarianceORCL = Σ(RORCL,t–RORCL)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 4,144.31 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 59.20
VarianceS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 1,923.46 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 27.48
CovarianceORCL, S&P 500 = Σ(RORCL,t–RORCL)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) ÷ (71 – 1)
= 1,947.49 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 27.82
Systematic Risk (β) Estimation
| VarianceORCL | 59.20 |
| VarianceS&P 500 | 27.48 |
| CovarianceORCL, S&P 500 | 27.82 |
| Correlation coefficientORCL, S&P 5001 | 0.69 |
| βORCL2 | 1.01 |
| αORCL3 | 0.72% |
Calculations
1 Correlation coefficientORCL, S&P 500
= CovarianceORCL, S&P 500 ÷ (Standard deviationORCL × Standard deviationS&P 500)
= 27.82 ÷ (7.69% × 5.24%)
= 0.69
2 βORCL
= CovarianceORCL, S&P 500 ÷ VarianceS&P 500
= 27.82 ÷ 27.48
= 1.01
3 αORCL
= AverageORCL – βORCL × AverageS&P 500
= 1.81% – 1.01 × 1.08%
= 0.72%
Expected Rate of Return
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | 4.67% |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | 13.79% |
| Systematic risk (β) of Oracle Corp. common stock | βORCL | 1.01 |
| Expected rate of return on Oracle Corp. common stock3 | E(RORCL) | 13.90% |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
3 E(RORCL) = RF + βORCL [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.67% + 1.01 [13.79% – 4.67%]
= 13.90%