Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.86% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 9, 2026 was $119.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $25.11 (17.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.24% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2025
End date: June 23, 2026
a = 5.0693
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1324
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1324) – 1
= 69.80%
December 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y65)
= Exp(a + b × X65 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 92 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0693 + 0.0004 × 92 + 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(5.3712)
= $215.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y65)
= Exp(a + b × X65 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 92 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0693 + 0.0004 × 92 – 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(4.8417)
= $126.69
June 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0693 + 0.0004 × 286 + 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(5.4494)
= $232.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0693 + 0.0004 × 286 – 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(4.9200)
= $137.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.86% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 9, 2026 was $119.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $25.11 (17.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2026
End date: November 9, 2026
a = 5.6814
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1197
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1197) – 1
= 61.43%
April 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y149)
= Exp(a + b × X149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6814 + -0.0020 × 217 + 2 × 0.1197)
= Exp(5.4814)
= $240.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y149)
= Exp(a + b × X149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6814 + -0.0020 × 217 – 2 × 0.1197)
= Exp(5.0025)
= $148.78
November 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6814 + -0.0020 × 425 + 2 × 0.1197)
= Exp(5.0603)
= $157.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6814 + -0.0020 × 425 – 2 × 0.1197)
= Exp(4.5813)
= $97.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.24% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.