Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.88% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $164.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.78% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: January 14, 2025
a = 7.2258
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 25.01%
May 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2258 + -0.0012 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.4186)
= $225.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2258 + -0.0012 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.1954)
= $180.44
January 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2258 + -0.0012 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.1216)
= $167.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2258 + -0.0012 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.8983)
= $134.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.88% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $164.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = 5.7492
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0317
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0317) – 1
= 13.52%
July 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7492 + -0.0004 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.1936)
= $180.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7492 + -0.0004 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.0668)
= $158.66
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7492 + -0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.1295)
= $168.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7492 + -0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.0027)
= $148.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.78% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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