Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.51% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $173.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.28% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of February 20, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.39 (7.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024
a = 3.8126
b = 0.0008
s = 0.1191
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1191) – 1
= 61.04%
October 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y664)
= Exp(a + b × X664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8126 + 0.0008 × 962 + 2 × 0.1191)
= Exp(4.8323)
= $125.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y664)
= Exp(a + b × X664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8126 + 0.0008 × 962 – 2 × 0.1191)
= Exp(4.3558)
= $77.93
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8126 + 0.0008 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.1191)
= Exp(5.4521)
= $233.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8126 + 0.0008 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.1191)
= Exp(4.9756)
= $144.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.51% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $173.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2024
End date: January 16, 2025
a = 7.0748
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0573
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0573) – 1
= 25.75%
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,062)
= Exp(a + b × X1,062 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0748 + -0.0011 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(5.4184)
= $225.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,062)
= Exp(a + b × X1,062 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0748 + -0.0011 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(5.1892)
= $179.33
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0748 + -0.0011 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(5.1297)
= $168.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0748 + -0.0011 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(4.9006)
= $134.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.28% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of February 20, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.39 (7.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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