Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 77.85% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $164.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.08 (17.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.23% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2023
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 2.5949
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0890
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 77.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0890) – 1
= 42.78%
April 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5949 + 0.0016 × 1,244 + 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(4.7353)
= $113.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5949 + 0.0016 × 1,244 – 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(4.3792)
= $79.77
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5949 + 0.0016 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(5.4673)
= $236.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5949 + 0.0016 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(5.1111)
= $165.86
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 77.85% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $164.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.08 (17.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 7.6366
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0600
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0600) – 1
= 27.11%
May 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6366 + -0.0014 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.4465)
= $231.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6366 + -0.0014 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.2066)
= $182.48
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6366 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.1814)
= $177.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6366 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.9415)
= $139.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.23% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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