Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.23% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of March 25, 2025 was $160.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.25 (4.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.40% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of March 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: January 14, 2025
a = 7.0955
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0564
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0564) – 1
= 25.31%
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,509 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0955 + -0.0012 × 1,509 + 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(5.4124)
= $224.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,509 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0955 + -0.0012 × 1,509 – 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(5.1868)
= $178.89
January 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0955 + -0.0012 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(5.1196)
= $167.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0955 + -0.0012 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(4.8940)
= $133.48
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.23% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of March 25, 2025 was $160.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.25 (4.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: March 25, 2025
a = 5.3539
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.39%
July 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3539 + -0.0002 × 1,587 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.1883)
= $179.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3539 + -0.0002 × 1,587 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.0365)
= $153.94
March 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3539 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.1521)
= $172.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3539 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.0003)
= $148.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.40% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of March 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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