Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.68% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 15, 2025 was $138.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.19% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 15, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.52 (0.37%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: April 15, 2025
a = 6.4772
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0664
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0664) – 1
= 30.44%
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4772 + -0.0008 × 1,488 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.4000)
= $221.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4772 + -0.0008 × 1,488 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.1342)
= $169.73
April 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4772 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.1259)
= $168.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4772 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(4.8602)
= $129.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.68% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 15, 2025 was $138.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: April 15, 2025
a = 5.6867
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0508
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0508) – 1
= 22.52%
July 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6867 + -0.0004 × 1,566 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(5.2307)
= $186.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6867 + -0.0004 × 1,566 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(5.0275)
= $152.56
April 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6867 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(5.1384)
= $170.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6867 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.9353)
= $139.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.19% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 15, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.52 (0.37%).
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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