Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.60% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of May 19, 2026 was $414.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 720.50% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of May 19, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2025
End date: May 19, 2026
a = 2.8488
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0762
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0762) – 1
= 35.66%
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8488 + 0.0017 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(5.3662)
= $214.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8488 + 0.0017 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(5.0612)
= $157.78
May 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8488 + 0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(6.0665)
= $431.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8488 + 0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(5.7616)
= $317.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.60% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of May 19, 2026 was $414.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2026
End date: May 19, 2026
a = -4.4444
b = 0.0058
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0058) – 1
= 720.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.83%
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4444 + 0.0058 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.7476)
= $313.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4444 + 0.0058 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.6269)
= $277.79
May 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4444 + 0.0058 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(6.1397)
= $463.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4444 + 0.0058 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(6.0190)
= $411.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 720.50% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of May 19, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.