Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.45% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of October 6, 2026 was $420.55 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $37.62 (9.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,232.84% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of October 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 6.2855
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.36%
April 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2855 + -0.0010 × 262 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.1065)
= $448.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2855 + -0.0010 × 262 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.9636)
= $389.02
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2855 + -0.0010 × 410 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.9650)
= $389.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2855 + -0.0010 × 410 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.8222)
= $337.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.45% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of October 6, 2026 was $420.55 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $37.62 (9.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2026
End date: October 6, 2026
a = 3.0067
b = 0.0071
s = 0.0120
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0071) – 1
= 1,232.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0120) – 1
= 4.94%
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0067 + 0.0071 × 406 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.9116)
= $369.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0067 + 0.0071 × 406 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.8634)
= $351.92
October 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0067 + 0.0071 × 428 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(6.0677)
= $431.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0067 + 0.0071 × 428 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(6.0195)
= $411.37
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,232.84% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of October 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.