Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.54% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of April 24, 2026 was $399.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.39 (0.86%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,891.03% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of April 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2025
End date: April 24, 2026
a = 3.0004
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0706
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0706) – 1
= 32.64%
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y986)
= Exp(a + b × X986 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,432 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0004 + 0.0016 × 1,432 + 2 × 0.0706)
= Exp(5.3715)
= $215.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y986)
= Exp(a + b × X986 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,432 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0004 + 0.0016 × 1,432 – 2 × 0.0706)
= Exp(5.0890)
= $162.22
April 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0004 + 0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0706)
= Exp(5.9819)
= $396.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0004 + 0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0706)
= Exp(5.6994)
= $298.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.54% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of April 24, 2026 was $399.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.39 (0.86%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 27, 2026
End date: April 24, 2026
a = -11.0099
b = 0.0093
s = 0.0223
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0093) – 1
= 2,891.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0223) – 1
= 9.32%
March 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.0099 + 0.0093 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(5.7557)
= $315.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.0099 + 0.0093 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(5.6666)
= $289.04
April 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.0099 + 0.0093 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(6.0164)
= $410.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.0099 + 0.0093 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(5.9272)
= $375.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,891.03% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of April 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.