Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.45% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of November 3, 2026 was $419.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $35.71 (9.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 124.89% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of November 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2026
End date: September 24, 2026
a = 6.2217
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0397
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0397) – 1
= 17.23%
April 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y178)
= Exp(a + b × X178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2217 + -0.0008 × 259 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(6.1022)
= $446.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y178)
= Exp(a + b × X178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2217 + -0.0008 × 259 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.9433)
= $381.18
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2217 + -0.0008 × 416 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.9816)
= $396.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2217 + -0.0008 × 416 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.8227)
= $337.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.45% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of November 3, 2026 was $419.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $35.71 (9.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2026
End date: November 3, 2026
a = 5.0321
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0310
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 124.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.20%
August 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0321 + 0.0022 × 381 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(5.9400)
= $379.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0321 + 0.0022 × 381 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(5.8160)
= $335.64
November 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0321 + 0.0022 × 456 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(6.1066)
= $448.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0321 + 0.0022 × 456 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(5.9826)
= $396.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 124.89% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of November 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.