Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.23% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of August 11, 2026 was $385.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 615.16% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of August 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2026
End date: August 11, 2026
a = 6.5526
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0345
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.78%
May 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5526 + -0.0014 × 366 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(6.1220)
= $455.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5526 + -0.0014 × 366 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(5.9842)
= $397.11
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5526 + -0.0014 × 463 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(5.9897)
= $399.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5526 + -0.0014 × 463 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(5.8518)
= $347.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.23% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of August 11, 2026 was $385.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2026
End date: August 11, 2026
a = 3.4669
b = 0.0054
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0054) – 1
= 615.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.20%
July 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4669 + 0.0054 × 449 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.9218)
= $373.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4669 + 0.0054 × 449 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.8522)
= $348.02
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4669 + 0.0054 × 463 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.9972)
= $402.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4669 + 0.0054 × 463 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.9277)
= $375.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 615.16% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of August 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.