Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.85% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $390.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.64 (2.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 146.52% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of September 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 6.3649
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0316
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.49%
May 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3649 + -0.0012 × 274 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(6.1065)
= $448.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3649 + -0.0012 × 274 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.9799)
= $395.41
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3649 + -0.0012 × 410 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.9468)
= $382.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3649 + -0.0012 × 410 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.8202)
= $337.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.85% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $390.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.64 (2.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 4.9077
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0200
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 146.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0200) – 1
= 8.33%
August 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9077 + 0.0025 × 389 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.9093)
= $368.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9077 + 0.0025 × 389 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.8293)
= $340.13
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9077 + 0.0025 × 414 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.9711)
= $391.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9077 + 0.0025 × 414 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.8911)
= $361.81
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 146.52% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of September 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.