Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.49% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $21.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.69% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2023
End date: January 17, 2025
a = 7.1858
b = -0.0023
s = 0.1204
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1204) – 1
= 61.86%
November 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y965)
= Exp(a + b × X965 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1858 + -0.0023 × 1,396 + 2 × 0.1204)
= Exp(4.1550)
= $63.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y965)
= Exp(a + b × X965 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1858 + -0.0023 × 1,396 – 2 × 0.1204)
= Exp(3.6734)
= $39.39
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1858 + -0.0023 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1204)
= Exp(3.1543)
= $23.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1858 + -0.0023 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1204)
= Exp(2.6727)
= $14.48
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.49% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $21.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = 2.8530
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0851
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0851) – 1
= 40.53%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8530 + 0.0001 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.0851)
= Exp(3.2308)
= $25.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8530 + 0.0001 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.0851)
= Exp(2.8905)
= $18.00
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8530 + 0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0851)
= Exp(3.2518)
= $25.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8530 + 0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0851)
= Exp(2.9116)
= $18.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.69% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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