Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.06% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of March 26, 2025 was $23.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.84 (13.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.39% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of March 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 15, 2023
End date: February 10, 2025
a = 6.8951
b = -0.0023
s = 0.1205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1205) – 1
= 61.95%
November 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8951 + -0.0023 × 1,328 + 2 × 0.1205)
= Exp(4.1440)
= $63.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8951 + -0.0023 × 1,328 – 2 × 0.1205)
= Exp(3.6619)
= $38.93
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8951 + -0.0023 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.1205)
= Exp(3.1233)
= $22.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8951 + -0.0023 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.1205)
= Exp(2.6412)
= $14.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.06% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of March 26, 2025 was $23.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.84 (13.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: March 26, 2025
a = 2.6595
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0888
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0888) – 1
= 42.67%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6595 + 0.0002 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(3.2277)
= $25.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6595 + 0.0002 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(2.8724)
= $17.68
March 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6595 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(3.2857)
= $26.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6595 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(2.9304)
= $18.74
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.39% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of March 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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