Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.21% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $26.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.93 (17.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.10% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of February 20, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.21 (0.83%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2023
End date: February 10, 2025
a = 6.9895
b = -0.0023
s = 0.1201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1201) – 1
= 61.68%
November 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9895 + -0.0023 × 1,364 + 2 × 0.1201)
= Exp(4.1437)
= $63.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9895 + -0.0023 × 1,364 – 2 × 0.1201)
= Exp(3.6633)
= $38.99
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9895 + -0.0023 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.1201)
= Exp(3.1211)
= $22.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9895 + -0.0023 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.1201)
= Exp(2.6406)
= $14.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.21% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $26.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.93 (17.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 2.9714
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0890
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0890) – 1
= 42.78%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9714 + 0.0001 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(3.2418)
= $25.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9714 + 0.0001 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(2.8857)
= $17.92
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9714 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(3.2533)
= $25.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9714 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(2.8972)
= $18.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.10% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of February 20, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.21 (0.83%).
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out INTC and 1,499 other stocks on our new website