Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 90.08% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of August 14, 2026 was $203.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,133.74% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of August 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2026
End date: August 11, 2026
a = 8.0998
b = -0.0063
s = 0.0691
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0063) – 1
= -90.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0691) – 1
= 31.84%
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0998 + -0.0063 × 395 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.7377)
= $310.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0998 + -0.0063 × 395 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.4612)
= $235.39
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0998 + -0.0063 × 455 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.3579)
= $212.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0998 + -0.0063 × 455 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.0814)
= $161.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 90.08% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of August 14, 2026 was $203.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2026
End date: August 14, 2026
a = 0.6404
b = 0.0103
s = 0.0249
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4,133.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0249) – 1
= 10.45%
July 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6404 + 0.0103 × 442 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.2260)
= $186.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6404 + 0.0103 × 442 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.1265)
= $168.43
August 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6404 + 0.0103 × 458 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.3902)
= $219.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6404 + 0.0103 × 458 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.2907)
= $198.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,133.74% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of August 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.