Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.95% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 12, 2026 was $157.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.82% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2026
End date: November 12, 2026
a = 6.5281
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0843
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0843) – 1
= 40.08%
June 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5281 + -0.0031 × 328 + 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.6741)
= $291.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5281 + -0.0031 × 328 – 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.3371)
= $207.91
November 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5281 + -0.0031 × 482 + 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.1940)
= $180.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5281 + -0.0031 × 482 – 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(4.8570)
= $128.64
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.95% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 12, 2026 was $157.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2026
End date: November 12, 2026
a = 8.8574
b = -0.0081
s = 0.0650
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0081) – 1
= -94.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0650) – 1
= 29.69%
September 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 438 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8574 + -0.0081 × 438 + 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(5.4358)
= $229.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 438 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8574 + -0.0081 × 438 – 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(5.1759)
= $176.95
November 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8574 + -0.0081 × 482 + 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(5.0791)
= $160.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8574 + -0.0081 × 482 – 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(4.8191)
= $123.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.82% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.