Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.60% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of October 13, 2026 was $184.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.46 (9.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 138.95% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of October 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 7.0279
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0649
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0649) – 1
= 29.65%
June 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0279 + -0.0045 × 328 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.6842)
= $294.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0279 + -0.0045 × 328 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.4246)
= $226.92
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0279 + -0.0045 × 427 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.2395)
= $188.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0279 + -0.0045 × 427 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.9798)
= $145.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.60% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of October 13, 2026 was $184.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.46 (9.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2026
End date: October 12, 2026
a = 4.2032
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0456
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 138.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 19.99%
August 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2032 + 0.0024 × 399 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.2466)
= $189.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2032 + 0.0024 × 399 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.0643)
= $158.27
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2032 + 0.0024 × 451 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.3707)
= $215.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2032 + 0.0024 × 451 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.1884)
= $179.19
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 138.95% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of October 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.