Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 542.30% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of July 15, 2026 was $224.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.32 (3.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.03% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of July 15, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2026
End date: July 2, 2026
a = 3.4059
b = 0.0051
s = 0.0661
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 542.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0661) – 1
= 30.28%
March 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y201)
= Exp(a + b × X201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4059 + 0.0051 × 294 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.0363)
= $153.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y201)
= Exp(a + b × X201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4059 + 0.0051 × 294 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(4.7718)
= $118.13
July 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4059 + 0.0051 × 415 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.6529)
= $285.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4059 + 0.0051 × 415 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.3883)
= $218.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 542.30% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of July 15, 2026 was $224.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.32 (3.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2026
End date: July 15, 2026
a = 7.2110
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0736
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0736) – 1
= 34.23%
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2110 + -0.0042 × 395 + 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.7181)
= $304.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2110 + -0.0042 × 395 – 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.4237)
= $226.72
July 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2110 + -0.0042 × 428 + 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.5811)
= $265.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2110 + -0.0042 × 428 – 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.2867)
= $197.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.03% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of July 15, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.