Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 135.64% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of April 16, 2026 was $1,734.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7,435.89% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of April 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2025
End date: April 16, 2026
a = 3.1366
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0631
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 135.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0631) – 1
= 28.73%
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1366 + 0.0023 × 1,414 + 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(6.5833)
= $722.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1366 + 0.0023 × 1,414 – 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(6.3308)
= $561.60
April 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1366 + 0.0023 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(7.5438)
= $1,888.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1366 + 0.0023 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(7.2912)
= $1,467.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 135.64% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of April 16, 2026 was $1,734.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2026
End date: April 16, 2026
a = -14.0934
b = 0.0118
s = 0.0336
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0118) – 1
= 7,435.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0336) – 1
= 14.39%
March 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.0934 + 0.0118 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(7.3128)
= $1,499.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.0934 + 0.0118 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(7.1783)
= $1,310.74
April 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.0934 + 0.0118 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(7.5615)
= $1,922.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.0934 + 0.0118 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(7.4270)
= $1,680.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7,435.89% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of April 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.