Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.50% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $147.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.30% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 7.2424
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0644
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0644) – 1
= 29.38%
May 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2424 + -0.0012 × 1,507 + 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(5.5605)
= $259.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2424 + -0.0012 × 1,507 – 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(5.3029)
= $200.91
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2424 + -0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(5.1808)
= $177.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2424 + -0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(4.9232)
= $137.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.50% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $147.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 11.9736
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0342
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0342) – 1
= 14.68%
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9736 + -0.0038 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.3267)
= $205.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9736 + -0.0038 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.1898)
= $179.43
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9736 + -0.0038 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.0586)
= $157.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9736 + -0.0038 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(4.9216)
= $137.22
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.30% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out AMAT and 1,499 other stocks on our new website