Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.70% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $474.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.05% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of September 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 7.8658
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.82%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8658 + -0.0042 × 331 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(6.5783)
= $719.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8658 + -0.0042 × 331 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(6.3486)
= $571.71
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8658 + -0.0042 × 427 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(6.1716)
= $478.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8658 + -0.0042 × 427 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.9419)
= $380.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.70% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $474.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2026
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 6.1526
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.07%
August 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1526 + -0.0001 × 403 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(6.1985)
= $492.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1526 + -0.0001 × 403 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(6.0155)
= $409.75
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1526 + -0.0001 × 429 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(6.1955)
= $490.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1526 + -0.0001 × 429 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(6.0126)
= $408.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.05% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of September 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.