Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.21% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $74.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.43% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 5.5485
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0816
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0816) – 1
= 38.62%
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y973)
= Exp(a + b × X973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,411 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5485 + -0.0007 × 1,411 + 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.7411)
= $114.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y973)
= Exp(a + b × X973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,411 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5485 + -0.0007 × 1,411 – 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.4145)
= $82.64
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5485 + -0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.4577)
= $86.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5485 + -0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.1311)
= $62.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.21% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $74.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 15, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 3.4511
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0430
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0430) – 1
= 18.78%
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4511 + 0.0005 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(4.3826)
= $80.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4511 + 0.0005 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(4.2105)
= $67.39
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4511 + 0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(4.4657)
= $86.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4511 + 0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(4.2936)
= $73.23
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.43% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out LRCX and 1,499 other stocks on our new website