Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5,582.82% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of May 14, 2026 was $308.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 711.02% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of May 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2026
End date: May 14, 2026
a = 1.2941
b = 0.0111
s = 0.0389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0111) – 1
= 5,582.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.84%
March 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2941 + 0.0111 × 353 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(5.2791)
= $196.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2941 + 0.0111 × 353 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(5.1235)
= $167.92
May 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2941 + 0.0111 × 402 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(5.8215)
= $337.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2941 + 0.0111 × 402 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(5.6659)
= $288.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5,582.82% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of May 14, 2026 was $308.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2026
End date: May 14, 2026
a = 3.4012
b = 0.0057
s = 0.0245
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0057) – 1
= 711.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0245) – 1
= 10.30%
April 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4012 + 0.0057 × 381 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(5.6351)
= $280.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4012 + 0.0057 × 381 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(5.5370)
= $253.93
May 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4012 + 0.0057 × 402 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(5.7555)
= $315.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4012 + 0.0057 × 402 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(5.6575)
= $286.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 711.02% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of May 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.