Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.34% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $201.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.35% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2023
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 3.5747
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0405
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0405) – 1
= 17.58%
October 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5747 + 0.0010 × 1,413 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.0494)
= $155.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5747 + 0.0010 × 1,413 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.8875)
= $132.62
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5747 + 0.0010 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.4519)
= $233.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5747 + 0.0010 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.2899)
= $198.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.34% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $201.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.6157
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0261
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 11.02%
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6157 + 0.0004 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.3083)
= $202.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6157 + 0.0004 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.2038)
= $181.95
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6157 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.3823)
= $217.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6157 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.2777)
= $195.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.35% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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