Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.18% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 10, 2026 was $300.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.90 (8.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 144.10% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2026
End date: October 1, 2026
a = 5.9180
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0437
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0437) – 1
= 19.11%
April 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y145)
= Exp(a + b × X145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9180 + -0.0009 × 211 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.8060)
= $332.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y145)
= Exp(a + b × X145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9180 + -0.0009 × 211 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.6311)
= $278.97
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9180 + -0.0009 × 365 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.6605)
= $287.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9180 + -0.0009 × 365 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.4855)
= $241.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.18% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 10, 2026 was $300.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.90 (8.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 4.7337
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0287
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 144.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0287) – 1
= 12.17%
August 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y223)
= Exp(a + b × X223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7337 + 0.0024 × 324 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(5.5833)
= $265.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y223)
= Exp(a + b × X223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7337 + 0.0024 × 324 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(5.4684)
= $237.08
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7337 + 0.0024 × 399 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(5.7666)
= $319.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7337 + 0.0024 × 399 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(5.6517)
= $284.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 144.10% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.