Stock Analysis on Net

NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 212.35% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $108.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $78.53 (42.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.41% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 22, 2022
End date: December 6, 2024

a = -0.1851

b = 0.0031

s = 0.1395

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 212.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1395) – 1
= 74.74%

August 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1851 + 0.0031 × 873 + 2 × 0.1395)
= Exp(2.8181)
= $16.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1851 + 0.0031 × 873 – 2 × 0.1395)
= Exp(2.2600)
= $9.58

December 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1851 + 0.0031 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.1395)
= Exp(5.4299)
= $228.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1851 + 0.0031 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.1395)
= Exp(4.8718)
= $130.55

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 212.35% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $108.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $78.53 (42.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 7.1983

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0558

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 24.99%

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1983 + -0.0013 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.1066)
= $165.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1983 + -0.0013 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.8836)
= $132.10

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1983 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.8862)
= $132.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1983 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.6631)
= $105.97

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.41% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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