Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 217.97% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $145.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.94% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -0.6656
b = 0.0032
s = 0.1356
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 217.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1356) – 1
= 72.04%
August 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y697)
= Exp(a + b × X697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,013 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6656 + 0.0032 × 1,013 + 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(2.8162)
= $16.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y697)
= Exp(a + b × X697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,013 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6656 + 0.0032 × 1,013 – 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(2.2736)
= $9.71
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6656 + 0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(5.3928)
= $219.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6656 + 0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(4.8503)
= $127.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 217.97% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $145.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.1195
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.67%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1195 + 0.0010 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.8966)
= $133.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1195 + 0.0010 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.5625)
= $95.82
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1195 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.0737)
= $159.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1195 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.7396)
= $114.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.94% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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