Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 187.19% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 23, 2025 was $102.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $67.49 (39.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.82% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: January 8, 2025
a = 0.1944
b = 0.0029
s = 0.1662
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 187.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1662) – 1
= 94.38%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y538)
= Exp(a + b × X538 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1944 + 0.0029 × 780 + 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(2.7812)
= $16.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y538)
= Exp(a + b × X538 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1944 + 0.0029 × 780 – 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(2.1166)
= $8.30
January 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1944 + 0.0029 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(5.4981)
= $244.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1944 + 0.0029 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(4.8335)
= $125.65
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 187.19% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 23, 2025 was $102.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $67.49 (39.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 17, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 7.8507
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0638
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.08%
October 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8507 + -0.0017 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(5.1458)
= $171.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8507 + -0.0017 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.8906)
= $133.03
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8507 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.8205)
= $124.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8507 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.5653)
= $96.09
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.82% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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