Stock Analysis on Net

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.84% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of April 22, 2025 was $86.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.54% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of April 22, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.54 (6.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: March 18, 2025

a = 9.8675

b = -0.0029

s = 0.0384

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0384) – 1
= 16.62%

September 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8675 + -0.0029 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0384)
= Exp(5.2064)
= $182.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8675 + -0.0029 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0384)
= Exp(5.0526)
= $156.43

March 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8675 + -0.0029 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0384)
= Exp(4.6767)
= $107.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8675 + -0.0029 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0384)
= Exp(4.5229)
= $92.10

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.84% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of April 22, 2025 was $86.26 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 19, 2025
End date: April 8, 2025

a = 31.1699

b = -0.0147

s = 0.0682

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0147) – 1
= -99.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0682) – 1
= 31.36%

March 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(31.1699 + -0.0147 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.8924)
= $133.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(31.1699 + -0.0147 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.6196)
= $101.45

April 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(31.1699 + -0.0147 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.5974)
= $99.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(31.1699 + -0.0147 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.3246)
= $75.54

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.54% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of April 22, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.54 (6.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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