Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.65% per annum.
- K price at the close of August 1, 2024 was $61.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.10% per annum.
- K price at the close of August 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.50 (9.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of K price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2023
End date: June 25, 2024
a = 2.8509
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0286
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0286) – 1
= 12.13%
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8509 + 0.0007 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(3.9372)
= $51.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8509 + 0.0007 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(3.8228)
= $45.73
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8509 + 0.0007 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(4.1429)
= $62.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8509 + 0.0007 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(4.0284)
= $56.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.65% per annum.
- K price at the close of August 1, 2024 was $61.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2024
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 6.3218
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0124
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0124) – 1
= 5.07%
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3218 + -0.0013 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(4.1430)
= $62.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3218 + -0.0013 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(4.0935)
= $59.95
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3218 + -0.0013 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(4.0477)
= $57.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3218 + -0.0013 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(3.9982)
= $54.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.10% per annum.
- K price at the close of August 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.50 (9.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current K price trends.
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