Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.41% per annum.
- PH price at the close of February 7, 2023 was $349.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $60.50 (20.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.08% per annum.
- PH price at the close of February 7, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2021
End date: October 27, 2022
a = 6.1012
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0567
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.46%
February 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y764)
= Exp(a + b × X764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1012 + -0.0003 × 1,111 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(5.8799)
= $357.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y764)
= Exp(a + b × X764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1012 + -0.0003 × 1,111 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(5.6531)
= $285.17
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1012 + -0.0003 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(5.6958)
= $297.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1012 + -0.0003 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(5.4690)
= $237.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.41% per annum.
- PH price at the close of February 7, 2023 was $349.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $60.50 (20.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: February 7, 2023
a = 2.6083
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0455
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 89.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0455) – 1
= 19.95%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6083 + 0.0017 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(5.6313)
= $279.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6083 + 0.0017 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(5.4494)
= $232.62
February 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6083 + 0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(5.8844)
= $359.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6083 + 0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(5.7025)
= $299.60
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.08% per annum.
- PH price at the close of February 7, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
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