Stock Analysis on Net

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since April 29, 2022.

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.58% per annum.
  • ADP price at the close of April 29, 2022 was $218.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.05 (7.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.01% per annum.
  • ADP price at the close of April 29, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 12, 2020
End date: January 19, 2022

a = 3.9008

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0534

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0534) – 1
= 23.81%

March 12, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9008 + 0.0009 × 1,046 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(4.9633)
= $143.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9008 + 0.0009 × 1,046 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(4.7497)
= $115.55

January 19, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9008 + 0.0009 × 1,724 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.5828)
= $265.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9008 + 0.0009 × 1,724 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.3692)
= $214.69

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.58% per annum.
  • ADP price at the close of April 29, 2022 was $218.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.05 (7.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2021
End date: April 29, 2022

a = 4.6124

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0531

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0531) – 1
= 23.68%

March 9, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6124 + 0.0005 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(5.3574)
= $212.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6124 + 0.0005 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(5.1449)
= $171.55

April 29, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6124 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(5.5461)
= $256.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6124 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(5.3336)
= $207.18

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.01% per annum.
  • ADP price at the close of April 29, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends

Check current ADP price trends.

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