Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 371.69% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $304.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $54.58 (15.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.17% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2026
End date: September 3, 2026
a = 3.9827
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0446
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 371.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0446) – 1
= 19.51%
June 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9827 + 0.0042 × 365 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.6230)
= $276.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9827 + 0.0042 × 365 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.4448)
= $231.54
September 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9827 + 0.0042 × 450 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.9842)
= $397.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9827 + 0.0042 × 450 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.8060)
= $332.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 371.69% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $304.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $54.58 (15.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 8.3576
b = -0.0056
s = 0.0275
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -87.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.62%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3576 + -0.0056 × 435 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.9652)
= $389.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3576 + -0.0056 × 435 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.8553)
= $349.09
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3576 + -0.0056 × 468 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.7796)
= $323.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3576 + -0.0056 × 468 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.6697)
= $289.94
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.17% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.