Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.12% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of March 3, 2025 was $601.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.03% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of March 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 6.5829
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0411
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.85%
January 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y976)
= Exp(a + b × X976 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5829 + -0.0001 × 1,416 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(6.5418)
= $693.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y976)
= Exp(a + b × X976 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5829 + -0.0001 × 1,416 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(6.3776)
= $588.52
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5829 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(6.5063)
= $669.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5829 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(6.3420)
= $567.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.12% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of March 3, 2025 was $601.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2024
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 8.9949
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0251
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -41.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0251) – 1
= 10.56%
November 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9949 + -0.0014 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(6.5722)
= $714.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9949 + -0.0014 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(6.4718)
= $646.66
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9949 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(6.4044)
= $604.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9949 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(6.3040)
= $546.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.03% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of March 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out INTU and 1,499 other stocks on our new website