Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $371.49 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $226.73 (37.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.49% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 30, 2022
End date: July 18, 2024
a = 2.2035
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0987
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0987) – 1
= 48.39%
November 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y670)
= Exp(a + b × X670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2035 + 0.0024 × 971 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.7354)
= $113.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y670)
= Exp(a + b × X670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2035 + 0.0024 × 971 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.3407)
= $76.76
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2035 + 0.0024 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(6.1683)
= $477.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2035 + 0.0024 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(5.7737)
= $321.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $371.49 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $226.73 (37.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 29, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 4.8139
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1319
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1319) – 1
= 69.50%
November 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y920)
= Exp(a + b × X920 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8139 + 0.0006 × 1,335 + 2 × 0.1319)
= Exp(5.8789)
= $357.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y920)
= Exp(a + b × X920 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8139 + 0.0006 × 1,335 – 2 × 0.1319)
= Exp(5.3512)
= $210.86
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8139 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1319)
= Exp(6.1730)
= $479.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8139 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1319)
= Exp(5.6453)
= $282.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.49% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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