Stock Analysis on Net

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
  • CRWD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $371.49 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $226.73 (37.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.49% per annum.
  • CRWD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 30, 2022
End date: July 18, 2024

a = 2.2035

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0987

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0987) – 1
= 48.39%

November 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y670)
= Exp(a + b × X670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2035 + 0.0024 × 971 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.7354)
= $113.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y670)
= Exp(a + b × X670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2035 + 0.0024 × 971 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.3407)
= $76.76

July 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2035 + 0.0024 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(6.1683)
= $477.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2035 + 0.0024 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(5.7737)
= $321.72

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
  • CRWD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $371.49 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $226.73 (37.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 29, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 4.8139

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1319

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1319) – 1
= 69.50%

November 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y920)
= Exp(a + b × X920 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8139 + 0.0006 × 1,335 + 2 × 0.1319)
= Exp(5.8789)
= $357.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y920)
= Exp(a + b × X920 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8139 + 0.0006 × 1,335 – 2 × 0.1319)
= Exp(5.3512)
= $210.86

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8139 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1319)
= Exp(6.1730)
= $479.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8139 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1319)
= Exp(5.6453)
= $282.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.49% per annum.
  • CRWD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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