Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of March 3, 2025 was $382.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $173.87 (31.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.21% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of March 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 30, 2022
End date: July 18, 2024
a = 2.1314
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0987
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0987) – 1
= 48.39%
November 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1314 + 0.0024 × 1,001 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.7354)
= $113.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1314 + 0.0024 × 1,001 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.3407)
= $76.76
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1314 + 0.0024 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(6.1683)
= $477.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1314 + 0.0024 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(5.7737)
= $321.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of March 3, 2025 was $382.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $173.87 (31.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 29, 2023
End date: February 3, 2025
a = 4.9755
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1327
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1327) – 1
= 70.00%
November 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9755 + 0.0005 × 1,365 + 2 × 0.1327)
= Exp(5.8978)
= $364.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9755 + 0.0005 × 1,365 – 2 × 0.1327)
= Exp(5.3672)
= $214.25
February 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9755 + 0.0005 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.1327)
= Exp(6.1057)
= $448.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9755 + 0.0005 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.1327)
= Exp(5.5751)
= $263.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.21% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of March 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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