Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of January 29, 2025 was $397.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $117.07 (22.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.86% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of January 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 30, 2022
End date: July 18, 2024
a = 2.0497
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0987
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0987) – 1
= 48.39%
November 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y715)
= Exp(a + b × X715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0497 + 0.0024 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.7354)
= $113.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y715)
= Exp(a + b × X715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0497 + 0.0024 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.3407)
= $76.76
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0497 + 0.0024 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(6.1683)
= $477.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0497 + 0.0024 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(5.7737)
= $321.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of January 29, 2025 was $397.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $117.07 (22.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 5.1248
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1308
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1308) – 1
= 68.75%
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1248 + 0.0004 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(5.9209)
= $372.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1248 + 0.0004 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(5.3977)
= $220.89
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1248 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(6.0788)
= $436.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1248 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(5.5556)
= $258.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.86% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of January 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out CRWD and 1,499 other stocks on our new website