Stock Analysis on Net

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.19% per annum.
  • IBM price at the close of April 22, 2025 was $240.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.44% per annum.
  • IBM price at the close of April 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IBM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 3.6159

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0573

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0573) – 1
= 25.75%

February 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y714)
= Exp(a + b × X714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,036 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6159 + 0.0011 × 1,036 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(4.8276)
= $124.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y714)
= Exp(a + b × X714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,036 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6159 + 0.0011 × 1,036 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(4.5985)
= $99.34

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6159 + 0.0011 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(5.6431)
= $282.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6159 + 0.0011 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(5.4141)
= $224.54

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.19% per annum.
  • IBM price at the close of April 22, 2025 was $240.90 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 30, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025

a = 7.8883

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0259

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.90%

January 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8883 + -0.0013 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.6234)
= $276.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8883 + -0.0013 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.5200)
= $249.63

April 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8883 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.5144)
= $248.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8883 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.4110)
= $223.85

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.44% per annum.
  • IBM price at the close of April 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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