Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.20% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $318.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $40.73 (11.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.35% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: May 24, 2024
a = 3.7876
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.64%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 917 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7876 + 0.0012 × 917 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.0911)
= $162.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 917 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7876 + 0.0012 × 917 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.7572)
= $116.42
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7876 + 0.0012 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.8806)
= $358.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7876 + 0.0012 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.5467)
= $256.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.20% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $318.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $40.73 (11.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2023
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 4.4013
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0917
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0917) – 1
= 44.29%
March 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4013 + 0.0008 × 1,105 + 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(5.4330)
= $228.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4013 + 0.0008 × 1,105 – 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(5.0664)
= $158.60
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4013 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(5.9866)
= $398.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4013 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(5.6200)
= $275.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.35% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out CRM and 1,499 other stocks on our new website