Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.20% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $324.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.78 (5.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.96% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: May 24, 2024
a = 3.7492
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.64%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7492 + 0.0012 × 948 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.0911)
= $162.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7492 + 0.0012 × 948 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.7572)
= $116.42
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7492 + 0.0012 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.8806)
= $358.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7492 + 0.0012 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.5467)
= $256.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.20% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $324.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.78 (5.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2024
End date: January 16, 2025
a = 11.1436
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0124
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -65.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0124) – 1
= 5.10%
December 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1436 + -0.0030 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.9155)
= $370.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1436 + -0.0030 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.8657)
= $352.74
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1436 + -0.0030 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.7885)
= $326.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1436 + -0.0030 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.7388)
= $310.68
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.96% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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