Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.35% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $256.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.34% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDNS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 5.9975
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0716
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0716) – 1
= 33.16%
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9975 + -0.0002 × 1,389 + 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(5.8501)
= $347.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9975 + -0.0002 × 1,389 – 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(5.5637)
= $260.80
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9975 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(5.7591)
= $317.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9975 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(5.4727)
= $238.11
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.35% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $256.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 9.2360
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 25.00%
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2360 + -0.0020 × 1,698 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.9003)
= $365.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2360 + -0.0020 × 1,698 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.6772)
= $292.13
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2360 + -0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.6445)
= $282.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2360 + -0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.4214)
= $226.19
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.34% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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