Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.43% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 30, 2025 was $442.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.80% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2023
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 6.7209
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0729
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0729) – 1
= 33.85%
November 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y759)
= Exp(a + b × X759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7209 + -0.0003 × 1,101 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(6.5006)
= $665.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y759)
= Exp(a + b × X759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7209 + -0.0003 × 1,101 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(6.2091)
= $497.25
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7209 + -0.0003 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(6.3012)
= $545.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7209 + -0.0003 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(6.0096)
= $407.34
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.43% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 30, 2025 was $442.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 22, 2025
End date: October 30, 2025
a = 13.8059
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0822
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0822) – 1
= 38.92%
July 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8059 + -0.0042 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(6.6477)
= $770.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8059 + -0.0042 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(6.3189)
= $554.98
October 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8059 + -0.0042 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(6.2227)
= $504.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8059 + -0.0042 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(5.8939)
= $362.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.80% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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