Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.20% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of August 20, 2026 was $397.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.83% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of August 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: August 20, 2026
a = 6.5607
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0975
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0975) – 1
= 47.71%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y559)
= Exp(a + b × X559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5607 + -0.0003 × 809 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(6.5419)
= $693.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y559)
= Exp(a + b × X559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5607 + -0.0003 × 809 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(6.1518)
= $469.58
August 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5607 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(6.2739)
= $530.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5607 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(5.8838)
= $359.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.20% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of August 20, 2026 was $397.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 4, 2026
End date: August 20, 2026
a = 11.1660
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -64.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.43%
May 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1660 + -0.0029 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(6.3446)
= $569.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1660 + -0.0029 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(6.1670)
= $476.77
August 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1660 + -0.0029 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(6.0354)
= $417.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1660 + -0.0029 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.8578)
= $349.96
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.83% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of August 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.