Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.07% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of December 20, 2024 was $492.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.18% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of December 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: December 20, 2024
a = 6.4824
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0617
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0617) – 1
= 28.01%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,418 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4824 + -0.0001 × 1,418 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(6.4444)
= $629.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,418 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4824 + -0.0001 × 1,418 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(6.1975)
= $491.50
December 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4824 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(6.3981)
= $600.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4824 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(6.1512)
= $469.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.07% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of December 20, 2024 was $492.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: December 20, 2024
a = 7.4118
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0612
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0612) – 1
= 27.73%
May 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4118 + -0.0007 × 1,605 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(6.4876)
= $656.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4118 + -0.0007 × 1,605 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(6.2429)
= $514.34
December 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4118 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(6.3448)
= $569.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4118 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(6.1001)
= $445.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.18% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of December 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out SNPS and 1,499 other stocks on our new website