Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.64% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 15, 2026 was $468.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10,219.89% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 15, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $41.96 (8.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: September 30, 2026
a = 6.5608
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0968
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0968) – 1
= 47.31%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y520)
= Exp(a + b × X520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5608 + -0.0003 × 753 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.5453)
= $695.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y520)
= Exp(a + b × X520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5608 + -0.0003 × 753 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.1579)
= $472.42
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5608 + -0.0003 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.2521)
= $519.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5608 + -0.0003 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(5.8647)
= $352.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.64% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 15, 2026 was $468.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2026
End date: October 12, 2026
a = -16.8536
b = 0.0127
s = 0.0349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0127) – 1
= 10,219.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.97%
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.8536 + 0.0127 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(5.9802)
= $395.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.8536 + 0.0127 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(5.8408)
= $344.04
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.8536 + 0.0127 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(6.3359)
= $564.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.8536 + 0.0127 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(6.1964)
= $491.00
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10,219.89% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 15, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $41.96 (8.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.