Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.13% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $490.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.09% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: October 28, 2026
a = 6.5399
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0974
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0974) – 1
= 47.62%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y510)
= Exp(a + b × X510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5399 + -0.0003 × 739 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(6.5408)
= $692.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y510)
= Exp(a + b × X510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5399 + -0.0003 × 739 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(6.1513)
= $469.33
October 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5399 + -0.0003 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(6.2566)
= $521.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5399 + -0.0003 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(5.8672)
= $353.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.13% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $490.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 17, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 2.2140
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0632
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0632) – 1
= 28.77%
July 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2140 + 0.0022 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0632)
= Exp(6.0556)
= $426.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2140 + 0.0022 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0632)
= Exp(5.8028)
= $331.22
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2140 + 0.0022 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0632)
= Exp(6.2804)
= $534.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2140 + 0.0022 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0632)
= Exp(6.0276)
= $414.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.09% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.