Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.93% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of November 12, 2026 was $462.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 103.62% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of November 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: November 12, 2026
a = 6.5296
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0971
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0971) – 1
= 47.48%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y500)
= Exp(a + b × X500 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5296 + -0.0003 × 725 + 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(6.5381)
= $690.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y500)
= Exp(a + b × X500 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5296 + -0.0003 × 725 – 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(6.1496)
= $468.52
November 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5296 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(6.2567)
= $521.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5296 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(5.8682)
= $353.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.93% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of November 12, 2026 was $462.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 17, 2026
End date: November 12, 2026
a = 2.6156
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0606
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 103.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0606) – 1
= 27.44%
July 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6156 + 0.0019 × 1,705 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(6.0584)
= $427.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6156 + 0.0019 × 1,705 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(5.8159)
= $335.60
November 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6156 + 0.0019 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(6.2883)
= $538.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6156 + 0.0019 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(6.0458)
= $422.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 103.62% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of November 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.