Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.55% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of July 23, 2026 was $373.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.99% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of July 23, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.13 (0.57%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2023
End date: July 23, 2026
a = 6.5448
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0973
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0973) – 1
= 47.58%
November 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5448 + -0.0002 × 835 + 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(6.5348)
= $688.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5448 + -0.0002 × 835 – 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(6.1456)
= $466.67
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5448 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(6.2928)
= $540.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5448 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(5.9036)
= $366.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.55% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of July 23, 2026 was $373.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2026
End date: July 23, 2026
a = 12.5375
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -72.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.37%
May 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5375 + -0.0036 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.3442)
= $569.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5375 + -0.0036 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.2012)
= $493.34
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5375 + -0.0036 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.0717)
= $433.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5375 + -0.0036 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.9287)
= $375.65
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.99% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of July 23, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.13 (0.57%).