Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.75% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of March 26, 2025 was $449.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.89% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of March 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: March 26, 2025
a = 7.0371
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0598
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0598) – 1
= 27.01%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0371 + -0.0005 × 1,407 + 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(6.4960)
= $662.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0371 + -0.0005 × 1,407 – 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(6.2569)
= $521.61
March 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0371 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(6.2998)
= $544.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0371 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(6.0607)
= $428.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.75% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of March 26, 2025 was $449.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: March 26, 2025
a = 12.9698
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0365
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0365) – 1
= 15.73%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9698 + -0.0038 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(6.3764)
= $587.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9698 + -0.0038 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(6.2303)
= $507.91
March 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9698 + -0.0038 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(6.1341)
= $461.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9698 + -0.0038 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(5.9880)
= $398.63
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.89% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of March 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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