Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.01% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $405.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.42% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 6.5578
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0979
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0979) – 1
= 47.92%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y569)
= Exp(a + b × X569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5578 + -0.0003 × 823 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(6.5407)
= $692.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y569)
= Exp(a + b × X569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5578 + -0.0003 × 823 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(6.1492)
= $468.33
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5578 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(6.2821)
= $534.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5578 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(5.8906)
= $361.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.01% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $405.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 12.3820
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.35%
May 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.3820 + -0.0035 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(6.3497)
= $572.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.3820 + -0.0035 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(6.1983)
= $491.91
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.3820 + -0.0035 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(6.0251)
= $413.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.3820 + -0.0035 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(5.8737)
= $355.55
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.42% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.