Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.64% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 1, 2026 was $490.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.02% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 1, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $64.28 (15.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: September 30, 2026
a = 6.5647
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0968
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0968) – 1
= 47.31%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5647 + -0.0003 × 767 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.5453)
= $695.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5647 + -0.0003 × 767 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.1579)
= $472.42
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5647 + -0.0003 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.2521)
= $519.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5647 + -0.0003 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(5.8647)
= $352.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.64% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 1, 2026 was $490.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2026
End date: September 30, 2026
a = 9.2071
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0580
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0580) – 1
= 26.09%
April 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2071 + -0.0018 × 1,663 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.3419)
= $567.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2071 + -0.0018 × 1,663 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.1100)
= $450.34
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2071 + -0.0018 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.0568)
= $427.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2071 + -0.0018 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(5.8250)
= $338.65
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.02% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of October 1, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $64.28 (15.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.