Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.26% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $396.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.18% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADBE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 8.2770
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0515
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.88%
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2770 + -0.0012 × 1,550 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.4674)
= $643.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2770 + -0.0012 × 1,550 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.2613)
= $523.89
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2770 + -0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.1305)
= $459.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2770 + -0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(5.9244)
= $374.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.26% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $396.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2025
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 13.8044
b = -0.0043
s = 0.0332
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -79.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0332) – 1
= 14.22%
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8044 + -0.0043 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(6.2224)
= $503.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8044 + -0.0043 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(6.0894)
= $441.17
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8044 + -0.0043 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(6.0332)
= $417.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8044 + -0.0043 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(5.9003)
= $365.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.18% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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