Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 186.27% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $90.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 634.08% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2022
End date: March 27, 2025
a = -0.4191
b = 0.0029
s = 0.2142
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 186.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2142) – 1
= 135.52%
November 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y528)
= Exp(a + b × X528 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4191 + 0.0029 × 764 + 2 × 0.2142)
= Exp(2.2107)
= $9.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y528)
= Exp(a + b × X528 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4191 + 0.0029 × 764 – 2 × 0.2142)
= Exp(1.3541)
= $3.87
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4191 + 0.0029 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.2142)
= Exp(4.7321)
= $113.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4191 + 0.0029 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.2142)
= Exp(3.8754)
= $48.20
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 186.27% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $90.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 7, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025
a = -4.2488
b = 0.0055
s = 0.1257
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0055) – 1
= 634.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1257) – 1
= 65.34%
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y905)
= Exp(a + b × X905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2488 + 0.0055 × 1,315 + 2 × 0.1257)
= Exp(3.1845)
= $24.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y905)
= Exp(a + b × X905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2488 + 0.0055 × 1,315 – 2 × 0.1257)
= Exp(2.6817)
= $14.61
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2488 + 0.0055 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.1257)
= Exp(4.9541)
= $141.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2488 + 0.0055 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.1257)
= Exp(4.4512)
= $85.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 634.08% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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