Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.24% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $192.59 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $43.03 (28.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 673.22% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2025
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 6.4762
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0944
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0944) – 1
= 45.87%
July 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y951)
= Exp(a + b × X951 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4762 + -0.0009 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.4049)
= $222.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y951)
= Exp(a + b × X951 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4762 + -0.0009 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.0274)
= $152.53
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4762 + -0.0009 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.0550)
= $156.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4762 + -0.0009 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(4.6774)
= $107.49
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.24% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $192.59 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $43.03 (28.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2026
End date: September 24, 2026
a = -4.9364
b = 0.0056
s = 0.0816
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0056) – 1
= 673.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0816) – 1
= 38.61%
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9364 + 0.0056 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.9159)
= $136.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9364 + 0.0056 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.5894)
= $98.44
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9364 + 0.0056 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(5.4426)
= $231.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9364 + 0.0056 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(5.1162)
= $166.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 673.22% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.