Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 155.32% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $106.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.47 (21.03%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 783.82% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: February 3, 2025
a = -0.0524
b = 0.0026
s = 0.2042
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 155.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2042) – 1
= 126.28%
September 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y484)
= Exp(a + b × X484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0524 + 0.0026 × 701 + 2 × 0.2042)
= Exp(2.1561)
= $8.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y484)
= Exp(a + b × X484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0524 + 0.0026 × 701 – 2 × 0.2042)
= Exp(1.3395)
= $3.82
February 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0524 + 0.0026 × 1,587 + 2 × 0.2042)
= Exp(4.4314)
= $84.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0524 + 0.0026 × 1,587 – 2 × 0.2042)
= Exp(3.6148)
= $37.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 155.32% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $106.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.47 (21.03%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2024
End date: February 20, 2025
a = -4.9744
b = 0.0060
s = 0.1101
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0060) – 1
= 783.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1101) – 1
= 55.34%
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9744 + 0.0060 × 1,318 + 2 × 0.1101)
= Exp(3.1144)
= $22.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9744 + 0.0060 × 1,318 – 2 × 0.1101)
= Exp(2.6739)
= $14.50
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9744 + 0.0060 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.1101)
= Exp(4.8218)
= $124.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9744 + 0.0060 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.1101)
= Exp(4.3814)
= $79.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 783.82% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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