Stock Analysis on Net

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.40% per annum.
  • PANW price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $153.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.53 (6.99%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.56% per annum.
  • PANW price at the close of April 4, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.04 (3.18%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PANW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 6.2701

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0427

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0427) – 1
= 18.64%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2701 + -0.0006 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(5.3655)
= $213.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2701 + -0.0006 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(5.1946)
= $180.30

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2701 + -0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(5.2781)
= $195.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2701 + -0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(5.1072)
= $165.20

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.40% per annum.
  • PANW price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $153.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.53 (6.99%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 10, 2025
End date: April 4, 2025

a = 10.7635

b = -0.0031

s = 0.0353

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0353) – 1
= 15.17%

February 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7635 + -0.0031 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.3712)
= $215.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7635 + -0.0031 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.2300)
= $186.79

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7635 + -0.0031 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.2077)
= $182.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7635 + -0.0031 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.0665)
= $158.61

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.56% per annum.
  • PANW price at the close of April 4, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.04 (3.18%).
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