Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.84% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $178.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.54% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.60 (0.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PANW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 6.7095
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0485
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.43%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7095 + -0.0009 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.3906)
= $219.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7095 + -0.0009 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.1965)
= $180.63
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7095 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.2451)
= $189.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7095 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.0509)
= $156.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.84% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $178.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 9.8693
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0422
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0422) – 1
= 18.38%
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8693 + -0.0026 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.3799)
= $216.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8693 + -0.0026 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.2112)
= $183.31
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8693 + -0.0026 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.1783)
= $177.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8693 + -0.0026 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.0096)
= $149.84
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.54% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.60 (0.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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