Stock Analysis on Net

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.84% per annum.
  • PANW price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $178.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.54% per annum.
  • PANW price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.60 (0.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PANW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025

a = 6.7095

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.43%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7095 + -0.0009 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.3906)
= $219.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7095 + -0.0009 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.1965)
= $180.63

April 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7095 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.2451)
= $189.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7095 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.0509)
= $156.17

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.84% per annum.
  • PANW price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $178.98 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 7, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025

a = 9.8693

b = -0.0026

s = 0.0422

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0422) – 1
= 18.38%

February 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8693 + -0.0026 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.3799)
= $216.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8693 + -0.0026 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.2112)
= $183.31

April 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8693 + -0.0026 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.1783)
= $177.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8693 + -0.0026 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.0096)
= $149.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.54% per annum.
  • PANW price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.60 (0.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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