Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.37% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of March 26, 2025 was $311.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.88% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of March 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 10, 2025
End date: March 26, 2025
a = 16.9208
b = -0.0061
s = 0.0197
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0197) – 1
= 8.20%
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.9208 + -0.0061 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(6.0219)
= $412.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.9208 + -0.0061 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.9431)
= $381.10
March 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.9208 + -0.0061 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.7517)
= $314.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.9208 + -0.0061 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.6728)
= $290.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.37% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of March 26, 2025 was $311.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2025
End date: March 26, 2025
a = 12.8361
b = -0.0039
s = 0.0226
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -75.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0226) – 1
= 9.46%
March 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8361 + -0.0039 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.8301)
= $340.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8361 + -0.0039 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.7397)
= $310.97
March 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8361 + -0.0039 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.7717)
= $321.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8361 + -0.0039 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.6813)
= $293.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.88% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of March 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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