Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 82.46% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $293.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.54 (3.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.83% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 14.2941
b = -0.0048
s = 0.0271
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0048) – 1
= -82.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0271) – 1
= 11.46%
January 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2941 + -0.0048 × 1,740 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(6.0491)
= $423.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2941 + -0.0048 × 1,740 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.9406)
= $380.15
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2941 + -0.0048 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.6627)
= $287.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2941 + -0.0048 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.5542)
= $258.33
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 82.46% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $293.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.54 (3.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 4.6763
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0183
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0183) – 1
= 7.60%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6763 + 0.0005 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.6881)
= $295.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6763 + 0.0005 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.6149)
= $274.47
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6763 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.6994)
= $298.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6763 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.6262)
= $277.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.83% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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