Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 972.14% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $183.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $25.64 (12.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 108.62% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of September 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 18, 2026
End date: September 3, 2026
a = 2.3650
b = 0.0065
s = 0.0383
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0065) – 1
= 972.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.55%
June 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3650 + 0.0065 × 373 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.8658)
= $129.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3650 + 0.0065 × 373 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.7127)
= $111.35
September 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3650 + 0.0065 × 450 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.3662)
= $214.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3650 + 0.0065 × 450 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.2131)
= $183.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 972.14% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $183.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $25.64 (12.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2026
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 4.3067
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 108.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.56%
July 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3067 + 0.0020 × 413 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.2023)
= $181.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3067 + 0.0020 × 413 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.0751)
= $159.99
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3067 + 0.0020 × 470 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.3171)
= $203.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3067 + 0.0020 × 470 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.1900)
= $179.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 108.62% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of September 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.