Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.91% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of May 8, 2023 was $66.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.45 (18.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 210.82% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of May 8, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.62 (2.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FTNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2021
End date: February 7, 2023
a = 4.8004
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0721
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0721) – 1
= 33.45%
August 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y813)
= Exp(a + b × X813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8004 + -0.0005 × 1,181 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.3454)
= $77.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y813)
= Exp(a + b × X813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8004 + -0.0005 × 1,181 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.0569)
= $57.80
February 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8004 + -0.0005 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.0644)
= $58.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8004 + -0.0005 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(3.7758)
= $43.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.91% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of May 8, 2023 was $66.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.45 (18.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 19, 2022
End date: April 24, 2023
a = -1.3819
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0367
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 210.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.81%
December 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3819 + 0.0031 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.9268)
= $50.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3819 + 0.0031 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.7801)
= $43.82
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3819 + 0.0031 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.3183)
= $75.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3819 + 0.0031 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.1715)
= $64.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 210.82% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of May 8, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.62 (2.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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