Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.30% per annum.
- SEDG price at the close of February 22, 2023 was $295.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 197.47% per annum.
- SEDG price at the close of February 22, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SEDG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2020
End date: February 22, 2023
a = 5.5849
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1296
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1296) – 1
= 67.93%
September 29, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5849 + 0.0000 × 949 + 2 × 0.1296)
= Exp(5.8775)
= $356.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5849 + 0.0000 × 949 – 2 × 0.1296)
= Exp(5.3591)
= $212.54
February 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5849 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1296)
= Exp(5.9084)
= $368.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5849 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1296)
= Exp(5.3900)
= $219.21
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.30% per annum.
- SEDG price at the close of February 22, 2023 was $295.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2022
End date: February 22, 2023
a = 0.3889
b = 0.0030
s = 0.1035
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 197.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1035) – 1
= 51.30%
September 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3889 + 0.0030 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.1035)
= Exp(5.6105)
= $273.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3889 + 0.0030 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.1035)
= Exp(5.1965)
= $180.63
February 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3889 + 0.0030 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1035)
= Exp(6.0466)
= $422.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3889 + 0.0030 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1035)
= Exp(5.6325)
= $279.37
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 197.47% per annum.
- SEDG price at the close of February 22, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
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