Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 150.38% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of January 16, 2025 was $69.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 714.73% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of January 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2022
End date: January 16, 2025
a = 0.0027
b = 0.0025
s = 0.2000
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 150.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2000) – 1
= 122.58%
August 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0027 + 0.0025 × 699 + 2 × 0.2000)
= Exp(2.1604)
= $8.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0027 + 0.0025 × 699 – 2 × 0.2000)
= Exp(1.3603)
= $3.90
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0027 + 0.0025 × 1,569 + 2 × 0.2000)
= Exp(4.3481)
= $77.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0027 + 0.0025 × 1,569 – 2 × 0.2000)
= Exp(3.5479)
= $34.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 150.38% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of January 16, 2025 was $69.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2024
End date: January 16, 2025
a = -4.6579
b = 0.0057
s = 0.1034
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0057) – 1
= 714.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1034) – 1
= 51.23%
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6579 + 0.0057 × 1,317 + 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.1178)
= $22.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6579 + 0.0057 × 1,317 – 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(2.7042)
= $14.94
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6579 + 0.0057 × 1,569 + 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(4.5661)
= $96.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6579 + 0.0057 × 1,569 – 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(4.1524)
= $63.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 714.73% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of January 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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