Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.65% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $167.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.03 (3.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.06% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of November 13, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.48 (0.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2025
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 5.8897
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1177) – 1
= 60.12%
June 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8897 + -0.0006 × 1,302 + 2 × 0.1177)
= Exp(5.3887)
= $218.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8897 + -0.0006 × 1,302 – 2 × 0.1177)
= Exp(4.9179)
= $136.72
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8897 + -0.0006 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.1177)
= Exp(5.1495)
= $172.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8897 + -0.0006 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.1177)
= Exp(4.6787)
= $107.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.65% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $167.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.03 (3.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2026
End date: November 2, 2026
a = 0.1678
b = 0.0028
s = 0.1026
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1026) – 1
= 50.73%
May 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1678 + 0.0028 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(4.9935)
= $147.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1678 + 0.0028 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(4.5832)
= $97.82
November 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1678 + 0.0028 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(5.5060)
= $246.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1678 + 0.0028 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(5.0956)
= $163.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.06% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of November 13, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.48 (0.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.