Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.74% per annum.
- APH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $120.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.50% per annum.
- APH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.99 (0.83%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 25, 2023
End date: April 12, 2024
a = 1.2844
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 101.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.90%
September 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2844 + 0.0019 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.4317)
= $84.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2844 + 0.0019 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.3283)
= $75.81
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2844 + 0.0019 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.8163)
= $123.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2844 + 0.0019 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.7128)
= $111.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.74% per annum.
- APH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $120.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 3.1926
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.40%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1926 + 0.0009 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.7296)
= $113.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1926 + 0.0009 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.6583)
= $105.45
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1926 + 0.0009 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.7816)
= $119.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1926 + 0.0009 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.7103)
= $111.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.50% per annum.
- APH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.99 (0.83%).
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