Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.84% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of April 22, 2025 was $86.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.54% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of April 22, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.54 (6.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: March 18, 2025
a = 9.8675
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0384
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0384) – 1
= 16.62%
September 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8675 + -0.0029 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0384)
= Exp(5.2064)
= $182.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8675 + -0.0029 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0384)
= Exp(5.0526)
= $156.43
March 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8675 + -0.0029 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0384)
= Exp(4.6767)
= $107.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8675 + -0.0029 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0384)
= Exp(4.5229)
= $92.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.84% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of April 22, 2025 was $86.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2025
End date: April 8, 2025
a = 31.1699
b = -0.0147
s = 0.0682
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0147) – 1
= -99.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0682) – 1
= 31.36%
March 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(31.1699 + -0.0147 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.8924)
= $133.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(31.1699 + -0.0147 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.6196)
= $101.45
April 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(31.1699 + -0.0147 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.5974)
= $99.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(31.1699 + -0.0147 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.3246)
= $75.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.54% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of April 22, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.54 (6.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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