Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.73% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of February 21, 2025 was $661.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 99.92% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of February 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2024
End date: February 21, 2025
a = 9.4685
b = -0.0017
s = 0.1246
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1246) – 1
= 64.59%
June 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4685 + -0.0017 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.1246)
= Exp(7.0803)
= $1,188.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4685 + -0.0017 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.1246)
= Exp(6.5820)
= $721.98
February 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4685 + -0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1246)
= Exp(6.6633)
= $783.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4685 + -0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1246)
= Exp(6.1650)
= $475.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.73% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of February 21, 2025 was $661.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2024
End date: February 21, 2025
a = 3.0610
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0372
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 99.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0372) – 1
= 16.07%
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0610 + 0.0019 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(6.4093)
= $607.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0610 + 0.0019 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(6.2603)
= $523.39
February 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0610 + 0.0019 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(6.5972)
= $733.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0610 + 0.0019 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(6.4482)
= $631.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 99.92% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of February 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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