Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.61% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $601.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.32% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 9.2347
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1181
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1181) – 1
= 60.40%
June 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2347 + -0.0016 × 1,535 + 2 × 0.1181)
= Exp(7.0617)
= $1,166.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2347 + -0.0016 × 1,535 – 2 × 0.1181)
= Exp(6.5892)
= $727.22
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2347 + -0.0016 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1181)
= Exp(6.6097)
= $742.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2347 + -0.0016 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1181)
= Exp(6.1372)
= $462.76
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.61% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of March 27, 2025 was $601.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 13, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 5.3758
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0580
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0580) – 1
= 26.11%
November 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3758 + 0.0006 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.4993)
= $664.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3758 + 0.0006 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.2673)
= $527.04
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3758 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.5792)
= $719.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3758 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.3472)
= $570.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.32% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of March 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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