Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.73% per annum.
- TER price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $120.34 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.25 (0.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.29% per annum.
- TER price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 27, 2020
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 4.9788
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1330
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1330) – 1
= 70.21%
November 27, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y396)
= Exp(a + b × X396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9788 + -0.0003 × 571 + 2 × 0.1330)
= Exp(5.1018)
= $164.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y396)
= Exp(a + b × X396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9788 + -0.0003 × 571 – 2 × 0.1330)
= Exp(4.5699)
= $96.54
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9788 + -0.0003 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.1330)
= Exp(4.7905)
= $120.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9788 + -0.0003 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.1330)
= Exp(4.2586)
= $70.71
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.73% per annum.
- TER price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $120.34 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.25 (0.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 4.1789
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0870
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0870) – 1
= 41.61%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y782)
= Exp(a + b × X782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1789 + 0.0003 × 1,131 + 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.6563)
= $105.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y782)
= Exp(a + b × X782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1789 + 0.0003 × 1,131 – 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.3083)
= $74.32
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1789 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.8421)
= $126.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1789 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.4942)
= $89.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.29% per annum.
- TER price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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